tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8610611981981414472.post5127514294395483703..comments2014-04-09T21:26:44.537-04:00Comments on The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll: Election Day is Tomorrow: Who is going to win?The Rutgers-Eagleton Pollhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16688749232458699426noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8610611981981414472.post-42207943297019371412009-11-02T12:57:47.627-05:002009-11-02T12:57:47.627-05:00An update to my post. Now we have a new Monmouth p...An update to my post. Now we have a new Monmouth poll showing Corzine 43%-41% while the Quinnipiac poll shows Christie up two points, 42%-40%. Fortunately for us, Monmouth DOES tell us there partisan breakdown of their likely voters.<br /><br />Monmouth has 39% Democrat, 33% Independent, and 28% Republican as the partisan turnout mix. Note that this poll has partisan turnout shares 1 point lower for Democrats and Independents and 2 points higher for Republicans than the previous Monmouth poll I discussed above.<br /><br />So both D's and R's are expected to show up in greater numbers and independents in lesser numbers. This also suggests Republicans are more motivated to turn out than Democrats.<br /><br />What if Quinnipiac had used the same partisan shares as Monmouth just put out? It changes things just a little bit: <br /><br />Corzine: 43.4%, Christie: 39.7%<br /><br />More evidence that the Quinnipiac poll must have significantly more Republicans and fewer Democrats in it than either Monmouth or our Eagleton Poll a couple weeks ago.<br /><br />Again, not saying who's right, just saying!The Rutgers-Eagleton Pollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688749232458699426noreply@blogger.com