Wednesday, August 17, 2011

WE'VE MOVED!

Hi! For various reasons we have moved the blog to a new address. Please visit us at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com.

Thanks for your interest!

Friday, May 13, 2011

Gov. Christie's Leadership: A Point of Praise and Contention

In our April 2011 poll, we wanted to give voters a chance to directly express their feelings about Gov. Chris Christie, so rather than giving just a closed-ended, favorable/unfavorable, or job performance question, (reported here) we asked New Jerseyans to tell us how they feel about Christie in their own words. Respondents were prompted to tell us what they like and what they dislike about the governor in two questions, randomly ordered.

The responses we received were then coded into categories for analysis. What emerged is a leader who is “trying” – in a good way - but who is also somewhat of a “bully.”

The big picture shows that many respondents pointed to Christie’s leadership style as a reason both to like and to dislike him.

While the number of those who have an unfavorable impression of Gov. Christie is almost the same as those with a favorable impression (42 percent to 44 percent), voters are more likely to say positive things about the governor when given a chance. Nearly two-thirds offer something to like about Christie, compared to 56 percent who have something negative to say. However, only about one-third have reasons to both like and dislike the governor, while 31 percent say only positive things and 25 percent say only negative. Few voters, only 18 percent, have no reasons to like or dislike Christie.

Twenty-five percent of those who say anything positive about the governor praise Christie’s leadership, while 18 percent of those offering negative statements also mention his leadership. For those who like Christie, “leadership” is often paired with words like “courageous” while for those who dislike the governor, his leadership is often described as authoritarian by saying he is a “bully” or “dictator.”


The Governor is Trying, and New Jerseyans Like That

In addition to leadership related responses, those who like something about the governor point to how he is “trying” to do things like cut taxes, take on unions, deal with the budget, and so on. What links these, as is clear from the word cloud (ww.wordle.com) below, is that these voters like that the governor is trying to shake things up, to make changes to business as usual. “Trying” is the word that pops out here, with 19 percent actually using this word. Yet this also suggests that voters are not yet ready to give credit for actually completing any of these things. Which makes sense, since the tasks are ongoing.

Another fourteen percent mention various policies as reasons for liking Gov. Christie. The policy decisions most frequently mentioned are related to his attempt to balance the budget and to cut spending.





On the Other Hand: Lots of Dislikes


In addition to leadership related responses, Christie’s policy decisions also heavily influence how voters evaluate the governor for good and bad. In fact, for those with something negative to say about him, Christie’s policy decisions weigh heavily into their assessment. Forty-one percent of those who express a dislike mention policies as a basis for their dislike. At the same time, as the word cloud of reasons to dislike the governor makes clear, leadership related and personality statements abound.



Not surprisingly, perhaps, reasons to dislike the governor vary across party identification. Policies top the list of reasons to dislike him among Democrats. Democrats also strongly disagree with the Governor’s leadership style, which they describe as authoritarian. Republicans who have something they dislike about the Governor are more likely to talk about confrontation, rather than leadership.

Women Care More about Policy than Style

In expressing dislikes about Gov. Christie, women are much more bothered than men by his policy decisions. Among women, 51 percent mention policy decisions as reasons for disliking Christie – with educational policy heading the list. Women are far less bothered by his authoritarian style (only 5 percent), and by his authoritarian leadership. Men and women are equally likely to say they dislike his arrogance.

When asked to give reasons for disliking Christie, 32 percent of men who provide an answer mention his policy decisions, and another 14 percent say they dislike his authoritarian leadership style, while 11 percent specifically point to his confrontational tone, and 10 percent mention his character as reasons to dislike him.


Rutgers-Eagleton Poll staffers Mona Kleinberg developed most of the analysis for this post, and Ashley Koning prepared the word clouds. Both are political science graduate students at Rutgers.


Well, another academic year is ending. As we move into summer, things will slow down for the Poll in terms of our public face, but we're working hard behind the scenes to learn from what we've done - the good and the bad - and to continuously try to do a better job each year. So we'll be relatively quiet for a while, unless something really exciting happens!

Monday, May 9, 2011

Some Thoughts on Gov. Christie and NJ Politics

(Lots of links in here to recent events and our most recent Rutgers-Eagleton Poll)

Governor Chris Christie is definitely a different kind of governor for New Jersey. He takes pride in being frank and forceful. His critics wouldn’t use those particular adjectives to describe him. Depending on who you speak with, he’s either a tough talking realist or an arrogant bully (PDF). Let’s take a moment here to recount a few recent highlights and what these may mean politically for Gov. Christie and the state.

The latest personal kerfuffle was when Christie asked the press corps to “please take the bat out on [Loretta Weinberg] for once.” This came in response to a tremendous amount of finger pointing regarding who is right and wrong in using a state law that allows certain elected officials to both collect a pension and a salary for the same position. Sen. Weinberg accused Christie of holding a double standard. Later it would be revealed that she was using the same provision which would spark his comment and subsequent press releases and stories discussing whether or not it was appropriate for Christie to use such language.

When he isn’t going after the Legislature or the NJEA, Christie has been hammering the courts. While the Christie-Sweeney standoff regarding the Supreme Court appears to have been resolved the governors latest salvo against the judiciary system could spark a constitutional crisis if he were to actually defy the court. We don’t think he’ll do this but he’ll be able to score political points no matter the decision. He’ll either win and claim victory, or lose and blame the court for budget cuts bolstering his argument to remake it and do away with bipartisan traditions.

Christie isn’t afraid to speak off the cuff and invites moments that most politicians would shy away from. (In fact, he’s even been referred to as a YouTube star.) We take him at his word that he won’t run for president in 2012 (Though this is turning out to be a strange year for the GOP, and recent reports are that Iowa GOP donors are courting him) but he’s been less definitive when it comes to the chatter for the number two spot. His YouTube moments and willingness to turn away federal funds have helped to make him one of the more popular politicians in the country and probably the most popular among national Republicans who see him through the lens of his press. He has a proven fundraising ability both at home and nationally. He’s also managed to focus on economic and financial issues while dipping his toes into social issues.

Yet all this must be tempered with a sense that while the governor has become a darling of Republicans, his overall ratings in New Jersey are not really all that good and may be at some risk. His approval numbers are roughly even (44% to 42%) but we can imagine big movement up ahead. We are already seeing some change, as over the past few months the governor’s approval ratings among men have declined, while women – who have disapproved of him from the beginning – remain negative. Moreover, since we began polling on Christie’s favorability rating in February 2010, he has never broken 50% in an Eagleton Poll, with his positive rating staying in the range of 44% to 49%. His negatives, however have climbed over time, from a low of 26% unfavorable in February 2010 to a high of 42% unfavorable in February 2011. Now, to be fair, New Jerseyans tend to be pretty hard on their governors, so a roughly 50/50 rating for a Republican governor in a blue state may not really be so bad.

What is one to make of a governor who seems more comfortable using a wrecking ball than a scalpel? It’s hard to tell right now, but the kinds of comments we get on the poll when we ask about Christie continue to show strong polarization. As the next election approaches, we will get a very direct test of Christie’s ability to leverage his support to influence the direction of politics in New Jersey.

Note: Rutgers graduate student Jorge Santos contributed the research behind this posting.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Quality of Life: New Monmouth Poll is Useful, but NOT Unique in Some Findings

We’re always interested in other polls, but we don’t talk much about them here, since we’re normally pretty busy just trying to make sense of our own data! But the new release by the Monmouth University Poll gives us pause. The poll, run by Patrick Murray, a graduate school colleague here at Rutgers back in the 1990’s, and former key staffer with the Eagleton Poll, reported an ambitious project to understand “quality of life” issues in our state.

Quality of life is definitely worth looking at, and it’s something Eagleton has done regularly over the years. In fact, we did this in a December 2010 release which was headlined “Garden Staters Like Their Communities Better than Their State”. This release showed both new (December) data and reviewed the past 30 years of Eagleton Polls on the question. This followed up on our release from April 2010 which also asked some quality of life questions. Both polls showed that New Jersey residents like their neighborhoods, and as we reported at the time, the December one showed we like our local communities better than our state.

So we were a bit surprised to see the following in the Star-Ledger’s reporting of the Monmouth Poll:

“Overall, 73 percent had a positive opinion of their home towns. But significantly fewer, 63 percent, thought the state was a good place to live. While still a majority, it was the lowest positive reading in 30 years of polling on the question and the first time residents gave the state lower grades than the towns in which they reside.” [Italics added]

We went back and checked – this comes from the Monmouth Poll press release.

Two things are wrong here. First, Monmouth’s numbers are NOT the lowest in 30 years of polling, as the first italicized part suggests. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll release of December 16, 2010 showed 53% rated the state as an excellent (14%) or good (39%) place to live, 10 points lower than Monmouth’s numbers. And since Monmouth used the same question and historical Rutgers-Eagleton Polls for their trend data, we would have thought they would notice this. While the data are not yet in our archive, the December press release and all details are on our website. Moreover, we know Patrick saw the earlier March/April 2010 poll (where 52% said NJ was an excellent or good place to live) since he took us to task for our analysis of that poll in his blog. Those data are in our archive. The issue here is not about trends, it's about the point estimates on this particular question.

The second claim is also incorrect, since our December poll also explicitly noted – in its title! – that NJ residents like their communities better than their state.

In any case, we are really glad to see that Patrick’s data both tracks with our own AND makes extensive (albeit uncredited in their press release) use of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll archive, available to anyone who wishes to use it. We would, however have appreciated a shout out in the release. (The full report does note the use of the archive, in a general acknowledgments, but it is not explicit about which Eagleton data was used for showing historical trends for each question.)

Having multiple survey research organizations interested in the same issues is valuable. It keeps us all on the top of our game, and gives the public multiple perspectives on the politics and issues that permeate our state. So cheers to Patrick for the extensive quality of life study, but next time it would be good to be a little more careful about the claims made for the press.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Gov. Christie and National Attention

Well, continuing on what seems to be our all Gov. Chris Christie, all the time, binge, today we release results of questions about whether the governor should run for president in 2012 (NJ voters overwhelmingly say "no"), and how Garden Staters view the national attention the governor gets.

We do seem to spend a lot of time on our governor, but partly that's because he has had such an impact on our state, and partly that's simply because he is an incredibly interesting politician. Not only did he win his office in a state that is pretty Democratic, but he did it a year before the Republican sweep of 2010. Moreover, the governor continues in his efforts to make over the state, both in terms of policy, but also in terms of a highly visible, highly active, knows-what-he-wants-image kind of governor. This seems to me to be something pretty new for New Jersey, whose last few governors have certainly not been the kind of strong personality that Gov. Christie is.

So he's interesting, and we think it's worth asking a wide range of questions about how our fellow Garden Staters feel in the second year of his term.

Text of the release follows.

Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

New Jersey Voters Say No to a Gov. Christie Presidential Bid in 2012

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - Gov. Chris Christie has been adamant that he has no plans to run for president in 2012, and results from a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll suggest that if he did, New Jersey voters would not be pleased. Only 22 percent of registered voters support a 2012 presidential bid by Christie, while 65 percent oppose and 12 percent are unsure. Moreover, while 36 percent of voters think having a governor on the national stage helps New Jersey's image, 42 percent say it makes no difference and 21 percent say it hurts the state's image.

"The governor continues to deny any interest in running for president in 2012," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "Given these numbers, that's a pretty good thing. Every time we've asked about a presidential run, New Jersey voters have overwhelmingly opposed the idea."

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 773 registered voters conducted with both landline and cell phone households from March 28 to April 4, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

New Jersey to Christie: Stay Put

While Republicans, at 44 percent, are most supportive of a 2012 Christie presidential run, no majority of any group supports the idea. Eight percent of Democrats and 24 percent of independents are sympathetic to the proposal. And while only about a third of Republicans oppose the idea, two-thirds of independents do not support a Christie bid, along with 80 percent of Democrats.

Those with a favorable impression of the governor more strongly support a 2012 presidential bid, but even among this group, only a plurality (45 percent) back Christie, while 35 percent oppose and 20 percent are not sure. Virtually all (95 percent) with an unfavorable impression would oppose Christie for president in 2012. Those who feel more neutral about Christie also oppose a candidacy, with only 11 percent in favor and 69 percent opposed.

"Given that about as many people feel unfavorable as favorable toward the governor right now, there is simply no place outside his Republican base to find support for a Christie run," said Redlawsk. "This does not mean a future try would be opposed, just that New Jerseyans aren't joining the national media's storyline that Christie could take the nomination in 2012 if he wanted it."

Christie national presence not all that helpful to New Jersey

Most respondents say that having a governor on the national stage has no effect on New Jersey's image. While 36 percent think Christie's national presence helps the state, 42 percent say it makes "no difference." Twenty-one percent believe Christie's national presence actually hurts. Political leanings color responses.

Two-thirds of Republicans say New Jersey's image is helped by Christie's national attention; only 36 percent of independents and 18 percent of Democrats agree. Most Democrats (47 percent) and independents (46 percent) simply think Christie's national notoriety does not affect New Jersey's image. A third of Democrats think the state is hurt by Christie, but only 17 percent of independents and 10 percent of Republicans agree. Men believe the governor helps the state's image by about a 4-to-3 margin.

The 80 percent of voters who talk about Christie to friends and family have stronger opinions on this question: 38 percent say Christie's national attention helps, but 23 percent say it hurts. Thirty-eight percent say publicity about Christie makes no difference. A majority (58 percent) of those who do not talk about the governor says he makes no difference on how New Jersey is perceived

Thirty percent of respondent say they have watched an internet video of the governor. By a 3-to-2 margin, they believe the national attention helps New Jersey, although nearly 30 percent say it makes no difference. Those who have never seen the governor on the internet are less positive: 33 percent say the state's image is improved, 19 percent say it is hurt, and 48 percent say it makes no difference.

How respondents get news about Christie, and how he affects state image, matters in only one instance. The small group of voters (7 percent) who get most of their news about Christie from radio are much more positive: 54 percent say his national presence improves the state's image, while 20 percent say it hurts and 26 percent say it makes no difference.

Majority says Christie national attention does not make them proud

When asked to set aside personal beliefs about the governor and evaluate if his national attention makes them proud to be from New Jersey, only 40 percent say the attention makes them proud. More than half (52 percent) disagree. About two-thirds of GOP backers are proud. Roughly one-third of both independents (37 percent) and Democrats (31 percent) feel the same.

Men and women feel the same on this point: about 40 percent of both genders are proud, though slightly more women (54 percent) then men (50 percent) say the national attention does not make them proud. Men are slightly more likely than women to say they are not sure.

Even when personal feelings are ignored, Christie is still a polarizing figure. Not surprisingly, households with public union members were most unhappy with the governor's national attention: only 25 percent of voters in public employee union households feel proud to be from New Jersey because of Christie's national attention compared to 44 percent of non-union households.

Governor's "issue coattails" seem short

Knowing that Gov. Christie supports any particular plan "to make New Jersey better" has little effect on respondents: 55 percent say his support for a plan would make no difference in their own opinion. Christie's backing of a plan increases support among 22 percent and decreases support among 17 percent. Independent voters are most likely to assert their independence, with 63 percent reporting Christie's support for a plan would make no difference. Even 41 percent of Republicans take this position, as do 55 percent of Democrats. A plurality of Republicans (48 percent) would take their cue from the governor and be more supportive, but only 20 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats would do so.

"Several months ago we asked about making public employees pay more for benefits and found the plan supported by State Senate President Steve Sweeney more popular than Governor Christie's plan or even a plan supported by both party leaders," said Redlawsk. "This new question shows that while more Republicans would tend to support a generic program from the governor, support from even Republicans is not automatic.

"Moreover, few independents say knowing the governor supports something makes them more likely to support it as well. So while the governor's job performance and favorability ratings are not bad, voters want to at least think they would make up their own minds about issues, no matter what the governor supports."

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Let's Look at How People Describe Governor Christie

Back last August, we did a poll in which we asked people to tell us whether a series of 8 traits describe Gov. Chris Christie "very well," "somewhat well", or "not at all." That was a fun poll, and so we decided to do it again, but expand it quite a lot. So this time we asked 14 trait words (adjectives) including the original 8 plus 6 more. In addition, we added 5 emotions words: Proud, Enthusiastic, Worried, Angry, and Hopeless.

The results are in today's release, details of which are below. The short summary - Democrats and Republicans are increasingly diverging in the words they think describe the governor "very well" and most New Jerseyans do NOT feel enthusiastic or proud when they read or hear about Christie. In fact, nearly half say they feel "worried." And some 40 percent of Democrats say Christie makes them feel "hopeless."

Overall, New Jerseyans do think the governor is stubborn, with even 52 percent of Republicans saying this word describes him very well. But for Republicans, I suspect "stubborn" is a positive trait, while for the 70 percent of Democrats who ascribe it to him, stubborn is no doubt a negative thing.

The governor gets high marks for being smart and a strong leader, but low marks for effective, trustworthy, or fair.

Full text of the release is below.

For full text, questions, and tables, please click here.

NJ Voters Show Sharply Diverging Views of Gov. Chris Christie; Independents say Christie Smart but Stubborn; Many Worry about Him

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Ask a Republican, and NJ Gov. Chris Christie is a strong leader and a smart, independent reformer. But ask a Democrat, and the governor is a stubborn, arrogant, self-centered bully. Independents are more mixed: they see Gov. Christie as stubborn, but also as a smart, independent strong leader. Even so, about half of all New Jersey voters are worried about the governor, while only 38 percent say he makes them feel enthusiastic, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today.

“Since last August when we first asked people to tell us which traits describe Gov. Christie, voters have become more extreme in their positions, with nearly all positive and negative traits seeing double digit increases,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “The largest increase has been ‘stubborn,’ which 70 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of independents and even 52 percent of Republicans now say describes the governor ‘very well.’”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 773 registered voters conducted with both landline and cell phone households from March 28 to April 4, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

“Stubborn” best describes Gov. Christie, followed by “smart” and “independent”

“Stubborn” is the adjective voters agree best describes Gov. Christie with 62 percent saying it describes him “very well,” up 20 points from August 2010. Only 13 percent say stubborn does not describe Christie at all. Closely following is “smart” which 56 percent of voters now say describes Christie very well, while 12 percent say it does not describe him at all. In August, only 39 percent said smart was a very good descriptor. A majority of voters also say “independent” (54 percent, up 14 points) and “strong leader” (52 percent, up 16 points) describe Christie, while 43 percent say “reformer” is a good descriptor, up 13 points from August.

Many negative adjectives are up as well, with 48 percent now saying “arrogant” describes the governor very well, an increase of 14 points. Bully has increased by 13 points to 38 percent of all voters. The only adjective from August relatively unchanged is “uncaring” which only 26 percent say describes the governor very well, compared to 22 percent in August.

“As voters get to know Gov. Christie better, their opinions of him become stronger, with Democrats and Republicans both more likely to say positive and negative traits describe the governor ‘very well’ and fewer saying they don’t know.” said Redlawsk. “This makes sense: voters have learned how the Governor operates, and they are responding accordingly.”

Christie “worries” voters, and makes many “angry” with fewer “enthusiastic” or “proud”

For the first time, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll asked voters to say how they feel when they read or hear about Gov. Christie. Nearly half (49 percent) say the governor makes them feel worried, 42 percent are angered, and 24 percent say he makes them feel hopeless. Positive emotions are much less in evidence: only 38 percent say Christie makes them feel enthusiastic and 36 percent say they feel proud.

“Emotions provide an interesting window to views of Gov. Christie,” said Redlawsk. “While people give him high marks for positive traits like leadership and independence, nobody but Republicans is enthusiastic or proud when they hear about the governor. This suggests a real disconnect. The governor is apparently respected for his intelligence and his willingness to stick to what he believes, but many are worried and even angry at what he does.”

While 70 percent of Republicans say they are both proud of and feel enthusiastic about Christie, only one-third of independents and fewer than 20 percent of Democrats express these positive emotions. Democrats are worried (70 percent) and angry (63 percent) and a significant percentage (40 percent) feel hopeless when they read or hear about Gov. Christie. About 20 percent of Republicans say they are angry or worried, while only 8 percent say they feel hopeless about the governor.

Independents, while generally assigning positive adjectives like “strong leader” and “smart” to the governor, are much closer to Democrats in their emotional responses. While 34 percent say they feel proud and 37 percent enthusiastic, 36 percent are angry and nearly half (45 percent) are worried. Few independents (19 percent) feel hopeless about the governor.

“I doubt Gov. Christie spends sleepless nights worrying how Democrats are responding to him,” said Redlawsk. “But independents, who pushed him to victory in 2009, are another story. While independents are favorable toward the governor by a 49 percent to 35 percent margin, the fact that so many are worried about Christie and so few are proud or enthusiastic might be cause for concern. It is hard to motivate voters if they are not enthusiastic about you.”

Fewer than 40 percent see Christie as effective, trustworthy, or fair

While voters say the governor is a strong leader and smart, they are far less likely to say he is “effective,” “trustworthy,” and “fair.” More voters say “arrogant” (48 percent) and “self-centered” (40 percent) describe Christie very well, than say the same about “effective” (39 percent), “moral” (38 percent), “trustworthy” (33 percent) or “fair” (30 percent). But few think that “impulsive” (32 percent) or “uncaring” (26 percent) describe him very well.

“We expanded the list of adjectives compared to August,” said Redlawsk. “Most New Jerseyans – even those who do not support the governor – think he is smart and a strong leader. At the same time they are less sure that he has been effective so far, and many simply do not view him as fair or trustworthy. It’s not surprising that 61 percent of public employee union respondents say Christie is not fair and 53 percent think he is not trustworthy. But only 27 percent of independent voters say fair describes him very well and just one-third say trustworthy does too. There is a real disjuncture for the governor in being viewed as smart but not nearly as trustworthy or fair as he is stubborn and independent.”

Partisan divide – In August and today

In general both Democrats and Republicans have become stronger in their assessments of Christie since August. Even so, the partisan gap between Democratic and Republican assessments varies across adjectives. A majority of Democrats (70 percent) and Republicans (52 percent) say “stubborn” describes Christie very well, a partisan gap of only 18 points, about the same as the 20 point gap in August.

Likewise, the gap in assessing Christie as a strong leader remains at about 40 points. In August, 22 percent of Democrats said “strong leader” described Christie very well versus 62 percent of Republicans. Today, 38 percent of Democrats say “strong leader” describes him, compared to 79 percent of Republicans.

The much wider gap in assessing the governor as smart (49 points in August, with Republicans at 71 percent and Democrats at 22 percent) has closed to 38 points, as 40 percent of Democrats now say “smart” describes Christie very well, along with 78 percent of Republicans.

In August 32 percent of Democrats said “independent” described Christie very well, compared to 49 percent of Republicans, a 17 point partisan gap. Today, 43 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Republicans say Christie is independent, increasing the gap to 31 points.

Partisan gap increases for negative trait words

The gap between parties on negative traits has grown as Democrats ascribe negative words in much greater numbers than in August, while a only a small number of Republicans evaluate him more negatively.

In August, 49 percent of Democrats thought “arrogant” described Christie very well, but only 15 percent of Republicans agreed. Today, 64 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of Republicans feel this way, widening the partisan gap from 34 to 41 points.

While relatively few Democrats (35 percent) said “bully” described Christie very well in August, that number has climbed to 53 percent. Republicans have also become more likely to say this: 10 percent in August has increased to 16 percent today. The gap between the parties has grown from 25 to 37 points.

Few voters see Christie as uncaring, however there has been a clear partisan shift here as well. While Republicans have shown no change, with 9 percent saying Christie is uncaring in both polls, 37 percent of Democrats now see “uncaring” as a very good descriptor of the governor, compared to 25 percent in August. The partisan gap has thus increased from 21 to 28 points, due to more negative evaluations by Democrats

Friday, April 8, 2011

Gov Christie/Pres Obama Evaluations in NJ

Click here for PDF with Questions and Tables.

NEW JERSEY VOTERS REMAIN SPLIT ON GOV. CHRISTIE; IMPRESSIONS OF OBAMA SIGNIFICANTLY MORE POSITIVE

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – After becoming less positive following introduction of the budget, New Jersey voters remain split on their impression of Gov. Chris Christie, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While 44 percent of registered voters give the governor a favorable rating, 42 percent view him unfavorably and 14 percent have no opinion. In February, 46 percent viewed the governor favorably and 44 percent unfavorably.

“We’re seeing essentially the same numbers we did last month. Christie’s favorability rating has not rebounded to prebudget address numbers.” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “In December, positive views were 10 points higher than negative. Following the budget address, negatives went up and positives went down, where they have stayed.”

President Barack Obama’s favorability rating stands at 55 percent, with 32 percent viewing him unfavorably and 13 percent reporting no opinion. Obama’s position has not changed much either from the 57 percent to 36 percent recorded in late February.

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 773 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from March 28 to April 4, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Christie job performance grade improves

Job performance ratings for Gov. Christie remain polarized, but improved, based on a revised question introduced by the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in February. To validate the new question, a random half of voters was asked to assign Gov. Christie a job performance letter grade from A to F. The other half used the traditional rating scale of “excellent” to “poor.” Half samples have a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

More of those grading Gov. Christie give him an “A” (14 percent) or “B” (32 percent) than a “D” (14 percent) or “F” (21 percent); 20 percent place him in the middle at “C”. This 46 percent positive to 35 percent negative is an improvement from the 38 (A, B) to 34 percent (D, F) rating Christie received in February.

Voters asked the traditional question seem more negative about the governor: 16 percent rate him “excellent” and 26 percent “good,” for a 42 percent positive rating. Negative ratings are higher, with 30 percent “fair” and 27 percent “poor,” totaling 57 percent negative. These ratings show little change from February.

“This shows how careful we must be in interpreting what voters are telling us,” said Redlawsk. “Traditionally we have viewed a ‘fair’ rating as bad, making it look like Christie has negative job performance ratings, but (often) positive favorability ratings. Our revised question – using a grading scale everyone understands – shows something different. While “A” and “B” are a good match for “excellent” and “good”, many who say “fair” in one version would give a “C” if they could, which is not a failing grade.”

Redlawsk noted that this changes the interpretation from “New Jerseyans are moderately favorable toward Gov Christie, but unhappy with his job performance” to “voters are moderately favorable both toward Christie himself and the job he is doing” thus creating more consistency.

Much of the polarization in Gov. Christie’s job performance grade is tied to ideology. Liberals are clearly negative about the governor while conservatives are more split than many might expect. About one-third of liberals give the governor an “F” while conservatives (41 percent) and moderates (34 percent) are most likely to give Christie a “B.” Only 27 percent of conservatives give the governor an "A," 17 percent give a “C” and 15 percent give grades of "D" or "F".

Moderates are most polarized. While 46 percent give Christie an “A” or “B”, 31 percent give him a “D” or “F” and 22 percent assign a “C”. Conservatives and Liberals are less split: 68 percent of conservatives assign an “A” or “B” and 60 percent of liberals give a “D” or “F.”

“There is little polarization within ideologues,” said Redlawsk. “Liberals rate the governor quite low, while conservatives give him good – though not great – grades. But moderates really are split, though on balance currently more positive than negative.”

Obama job performance grade mostly unchanged

President Obama’s job performance grade has remained mostly stagnant since late February. Among voters grading the president’s job performance, 14 percent give him an “A,” 32 percent a “B,” 27 percent a “C,” 16 percent a “D,” and 10 percent an “F.” Obama’s 46 percent positive (A, B) and 26 percent negative (D, F) grades compare to 43 percent positive and 26 percent negative in February.

Of voters responding to the standard question, 13 percent say Obama is doing an “excellent” job as president, compared to 11% in February. Thirty-four percent say “good” (38 percent in February) while 31 percent say “fair”—the same as February. Another 22 percent describe Obama’s job performance as “poor,” up two points from February.

On the grading scale, 60 percent of conservatives give Obama a grade of “D” or “F,” while 22 percent of moderates and 4 percent of liberals concur. Liberals are most likely to give the President a grade of “B” (57 percent), with another 20 percent giving him an “A”. Few conservatives give the president marks of “A” or “B” (8 percent total), but 48 percent of moderates do.

New Jerseyans Support Libya Action

Voters were asked if they supported or opposed Obama’s decision to use military attacks to enforce the Libyan no-fly zone: 49 percent support the decision, 38 percent oppose it, and 13 percent are unsure. Support comes men (55 percent vs. 44 percent of women), Democrats (56 percent support vs. 47 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of Independents), and liberals (57 percent support, compared to 47 percent from conservatives and 48 percent from moderates.) Among those who feel favorable toward Obama, 58 percent support the decision, while 41 percent of those unfavorable toward him also support the attacks.

“While support for the Libyan attacks is not overwhelming, the decision does not appear to have hurt Obama’s favorability or job performance rating,” said Redlawsk. “What’s interesting is that relatively large shares of those who otherwise don’t like the president are supportive of this particular action on his part.”

Sen. Menendez still relatively unknown, but more favorable than unfavorable

Fewer voters are willing to give an impression of Sen. Robert Menendez now than in late February when 38 percent had no opinion. In the new poll, 32 percent report favorable impressions and 24 percent unfavorable, but 44 percent have no opinion about the Senator. In February, 34 percent were favorable and 28 percent unfavorable.

Placed in context with Sen. Frank Lautenberg, New Jersey voters are relatively non-opinionated about senators. While 38 percent of New Jerseyans have a favorable impression of Lautenberg and 28 percent have an unfavorable view, 34 percent have no opinion.

Democrats are most likely to view Menendez favorably, with 52 percent favorable. Only 10 percent of Republicans are favorable, while 25 percent of independents agree. Forty-five percent of Republicans, 8 percent of Democrats, and 28 percent of independents view Menendez unfavorably. More independent voters (46 percent) report having no opinion of Menendez than Democrats (40 percent) and Republicans (44 percent).

“While Sen. Menendez continues to toil in relative anonymity for a U.S. Senator, his overall rating among those who venture an opinion remains positive, and not much less so that Sen. Lautenberg,” said Redlawsk. “Even so, with 2012 on the horizon, Sen. Menendez seems to have some work cut out to re-introduce himself to New Jersey voters. In particular, independents are slightly negative at this time. To win he will need to improve his standing among these voters.”

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Polling on Charter Schools - Latest from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll

NEW JERSEYANS SPLIT ON CHARTER SCHOOLS;
BLACK VOTERS STRONGER SUPPORTERS, FAVOR SCHOOL CHOICE VOUCHERS


Click here for PDF of release with questions and tables

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - Voters are split on the continuing growth of charter schools in New Jersey, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Forty-four percent of all Garden State voters support increasing the number of charter schools in the state, while 42 percent oppose adding more charters. Fourteen percent say they don't know if they support or oppose an increase. Black voters are stronger supporters: 52 percent favor more charter schools.

A majority of the state's white voters would prefer to send a child to a public school, but black voters prefer charter schools by a narrow margin. While only 31 percent of whites choose charters, 48 percent of Blacks feel the same. Public schools are favored by whites, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Black voters are also more likely than whites to support school choice vouchers which would allow children to attend private schools using taxpayer funding, 54 percent to 36 percent.

"As education issues continue to make headlines here, voters are mixed on their reactions," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "While there are traditional party-line differences, what really stands out is the difference between Black and white voters. African-Americans, while not otherwise supportive of Gov. Christie, are generally behind his plans for charter schools and vouchers."

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 773 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from March 28 to April 4, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Garden Staters split on increasing charter schools

Among all voters, supporters of charter schools edge opponents, 44 percent to 42 percent. The numbers are essentially the same for those with at least one child under 18 at home: 41 percent in favor and 44 percent against. Black voters are more positive, however, 52 percent supporting the growth of charter schools and 39 percent opposing.

Those with a favorable impression of the governor also are stronger supporters, 57 percent to 29 percent. Voters unfavorable toward Christie strongly oppose more charter schools, 57 percent to 30 percent. Not surprisingly, only a minority of voters in public employee union households support increasing the number of charter schools, 30 percent to 58 percent who oppose. Support for charters is greater among those in non-union households, 46 percent in favor and 39 percent opposed.

"These data show an interesting split in traditional Democratic constituencies on this issue," said Redlawsk. "As Governor Christie pushes for more charter schools as a lynchpin in his education plan, public employee union members resist, but African-Americans appear to be on his side."

Charter schools seen equal to or better than public schools


Almost four-in-10 respondents (38 percent) say charter schools do a better job educating children than traditional public schools, while 30 percent say both types are equally good and 9 percent say charters do worse. Twenty-three percent are not sure. Among those with a child under 18, the results are similar: 36 percent say charter schools do better, 34 percent say both types do about the same, 7 percent say charter schools do worse than traditional public schools and 23 percent are unsure. Though supporting charters, Blacks are no more likely than whites to say charter schools do a better job than public schools.

By better than 2 to 1 (54 percent to 24 percent), Christie's supporters are more likely to say charters do a better job than traditional schools at educating students. Twenty-two percent of Christie supporters say the two types of schools are equally good, while 42 percent of Christie detractors believe they are equal. While 14 percent of those unfavorable toward Christie say charter schools do a worse job, only 4 percent of Christie supporters agree. Similarly, among public employee union households, 22 percent prefer charters; 41 percent of non-union households agree.

Seventy-eight percent who say charter schools do a better job, want more in New Jersey. Among those who say both types perform about the same, only 29 percent support more charter schools, while 62 percent are opposed. Most voters do not think the growth in charters has weakened traditional public schools; only 24 percent do so and 45 percent say it has made no difference

Whites prefer to send children to traditional public schools while blacks are split

Though a majority of voters says charter schools are as least as good as public schools, most white respondents would prefer to send a child to a traditional public school, 51 percent to 15 percent; 15 percent are not sure. Black voters have a starkly different view, with 48 percent preferring a charter school and 43 percent preferring a traditional public school, with only 7 percent unsure.

Christie supporters are half as likely as detractors to say they would send a child to public school; 36 percent would send a child to a public school, while 45 percent prefer a charter. However, 64 percent of those not favorable toward Christie prefer a traditional public school, and only 21 percent would use a charter school.

Black voters support school choice vouchers

Fifty-four percent of black voters support school choice vouchers, another key part of the governor's education reform plan. Christie has proposed publicly funded scholarships to enable school children to attend private schools with public funding. While black voters support this idea, only 36 percent of white voters agree. As with other parts of his education plans, those favoring the governor are stronger supporters of vouchers, 51 percent to 44 percent opposed. Among those holding an unfavorable view of the governor, only 30 percent support vouchers, while 65 percent oppose them.

"Vouchers are perceived to be of most benefit to families in failing urban school districts," said Redlawsk. "Since most white voters do not perceive their schools as failing, few seem to support the idea of using tax dollars to allow children to move to private schools where public schools are failing. These results show a clear sense of localism - if my schools are ok, then why use tax dollars for someone else?

"The governor's voucher plan is not overly popular among his core constituency. While conservatives and Republicans strongly support charter schools, they are evenly split of vouchers," said Redlawsk. "Democrats in general strongly oppose vouchers, except for African Americans, who clearly want more choice of schools. The usual political coalitions have a hard time with this issue."

Public school budget support unclear

About a month before the annual school elections, Garden State voters are not sure if they will vote for or against their local school budgets. Thirty percent say they will vote yes (34 percent in households with children, 27 percent childless households) while 16 percent say they will vote no (14 percent with children at home; 18 percent without). However, 39 percent say they are not sure how they will vote (38 percent children, 40 percent without.)

Christie backers are less likely to favor their district's budget. Only 24 percent favor their school budget, while another 24 percent plan to vote against it, and 36 percent are not sure. Among those unfavorable toward the governor, 40 percent plan to vote for their budget, 8 percent oppose it, and 41 percent are unsure.

"Signs point to another contentious season for school budgets," said Redlawsk. "As with most other things in New Jersey these days, where the governor comes down on the issue matters. If he makes another effort to defeat school budgets as he did last year, he's likely to motivate his base and see some success."

Monday, April 4, 2011

How Asking about Governor Christie's Decisions Can Change Opinions

(Note: Virginia Tangel of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll staff prepared this post.)

In our December 9, 2010 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll release, we included a question that asked about the public’s support for the proposed ARC (Access to the Region’s Core) tunnel under the Hudson River to Manhattan. Governor Christie had canceled the project in October citing cost overruns, but we still wanted to measure the public’s support or opposition to the project, as well as attitudes on Christie’s decision. In order to do both of these things while attempting to avoid biasing our results, we employed a common methodological tool of the split ballot experiment. In this scenario, a random half of sampled respondents (N=447) first received a question asking their personal view of the importance of the ARC tunnel to economic development in New Jersey, followed by a question measuring their support or opposition to Governor Christie’s cancellation of the project. The other group received the question about their support or opposition to Christie’s decision first (N=436), followed by the question about their own opinions regarding the importance of the tunnel. Setting up question order experiments offers survey researchers ways in which we can see effects of context in a survey.

Here are the results of the question about the importance of the tunnel:



Note that when asked first about the importance of the proposed ARC tunnel under the Hudson River, 37% of New Jerseyans reported that they thought the tunnel was “very important.” But, respondents asked this question after offering their opinion about Governor Christie’s cancellation of the tunnel had significantly different views. In this sample, only 22% -- 15% fewer than those without the Christie context – say the tunnel is very important. Note also that the “Don’t Know’s” go down. Providing information that Christie canceled the tunnel helps people come up with an answer on its importance. Clearly, asking first about Christie’s decision had an effect on respondents’ opinions—a sign that survey respondents are willing to rationalize their own views to get behind the decision of the governor.

This pattern becomes even more interesting when breaking down by political party identification.



For respondents who were not asked first about supporting or opposing Christie’s decision, the tunnel seems pretty important – even more than a third of Republicans say it is very important, and few people say it is not at all important.

But when we ask about Christie’s decision first, the effect is huge for DEMOCRATS! Only 18% who get to think about Christie’s decision first say the tunnel is very important, a drop of 24 points among Democrats. Republicans and independents are also less supportive, but the effect is smaller. In general, opinions of the importance of the transit tunnel drop precipitously when placed in the context of Governor Christie’s decision – especially among Democrats.

Question order effects are the result of what survey researchers call “consistency effects” (Schuman and Presser 1981 in Wilson et al. 2008), in which a norm of reciprocity in responses comes into play. In this case, the comparative context exists when framed in terms of Christie’s cancellation of the ARC tunnel project. If a respondent first learns of Christie’s cancellation and is asked to provide their opinion of that, some adjust their response in the following question about the importance of the ARC tunnel because they feel obligated in light of their previous answer. So, this norm of reciprocity is why we see New Jerseyans’ opinions of the importance of the ARC tunnel decline when placed in the Christie context.

References


Wilson, David C. et al. 2008. “Affirmative Action Programs for Women and Minorities: Expressed Support Affected by Question Order.” Public Opinion Quarterly 72:514-522.

Schuman, Howard and Stanley Presser. 1981. Questions and Answers in Attitude Surveys: Experiments on Question Form, Wording, and Context. New York: Academic Press.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Christie wades into the Abortion Issue

Yes, I know that Gov. Chris Christie made his speech supporting a pro-life rally back in late January. However, it wasn't until our recent poll Feb. 24-26 that we were able to ask New Jerseyans what they thought. So we gave them a little information (that Christie spoke at the antiabortion rally) and asked if this made them feel better or worse about the governor. Not surprisingly, a slight majority (54%) says it has no effect, but 31% say it makes them feel worse, and 14% say it makes them feel better. This suggests the governor may have more to lose than gain politically from this move. But of course, it's not just about votes. It is clearly about both strongly held beliefs AND perhaps nailing down the conservative base, not all of whom are convinced of the governor's conservative bona fides.

The most interesting group in this is probably the 35 percent of strongly pro-choice voters who have a favorable impression of Christie when we ask early in the survey. Of these folks. Among these voters, 38% say Christie's rally speech makes them feel worse about the governor, while essentially none feel better (no surprise).

Contrast this to the 36% of voters who support abortion only with conditions who have an unfavorable impression of the governor. Only 8% say the governor's speech makes them feel better about him, while 35% feel worse.

The very small group of pure pro-life voters unfavorable toward Christie is also mostly unmoved. And there are not that many there to move in the first place.

So on a pure political (votes) calculation, speaking at the rally moves many "favorable" Christie folks to feel worse, while moving very few "unfavorables" toward feeling better about him.

Full test of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

GOV. CHRISTIE'S ANTI-ABORTION SPEECH LOWERS OPINION IN ONE-THIRD OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - A small minority - 10 percent - of registered voters in New Jersey believes abortion should be illegal under all circumstances, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Just over a third (37 percent) say abortion should be legal under all conditions, and another 50 percent support legal abortion with restrictions.

Gov. Chris Christie brought abortion back into the spotlight when he spoke at an anti-abortion rally in Trenton in January, where he proclaimed himself an "ally" of anti-abortion efforts. While 54 percent of registered voters say his speech did not affect their opinion of the governor, 31 percent say it made them feel worse about Christie, while 14 percent say his participation in the rally made them feel better.

"New Jersey's attitudes on abortion have not changed much since we last asked, seven years ago," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. "Abortion rights continue to have support in the state. It's not surprising that Governor Christie's public entrance into this issue has had somewhat negative consequences for him."

The poll of 912 New Jersey adults was conducted among both landline and cell phone households Feb. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. A weighted subsample of 811 registered voters is reported here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Most New Jerseyans support legal abortion, at least in some circumstances

Nearly nine-in-10 voters (87 percent) favor legalized abortion under at least some circumstances; 37 percent want no limits on the procedure, but 10 percent want it banned with no exceptions, the poll finds.

When last asked in January 2004, 31 percent supported abortion in all instances, while another 51 percents supported abortion rights only under certain circumstances. At that time, 13 percent opposed abortion in all cases. "Few in New Jersey want to see abortion rights eliminated entirely," said Redlawsk. "We did not ask about the specific limits people support, buy there is clearly little support for a total ban on abortions."

While Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support abortion rights, even the latter generally support access to abortion under some conditions: 52 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of GOP voters say abortion should be legal under any circumstance. Another 38 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans say abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances. Independents, too, support the procedure: 32 percent under all conditions and 57 percent in certain instances. Only 16 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of Democrats, and 9 percent of independents support banning abortion entirely.

Perhaps surprisingly, nearly equal percentages of New Jersey Catholics and Protestants favor unconditional access to abortion (30 percent and 29 percent, respectively). An additional 55 percent of each group support legal abortion only under limited circumstances. The small sample of Jewish voters, however, strongly supports abortion rights; 71 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases. Only 13 percent of Catholics, 11 percent of Protestants, and 2 percent of Jews think that abortion should be illegal under all circumstances.

Attendance at religious services has some effect on support for abortion rights, according to the poll. Those who attend most often are much less in favor: 23 percent say abortion should be legal under all circumstances, compared to 46 percent of those who attend once a month or less. Only 6 percent who attend services less regularly support banning all abortion, compared to 16 percent who attend more than once a month.

There is a very small gender gap on abortion in the Garden State. Women are slightly more likely than men (40 percent to 34 percent) to support legal abortion under any circumstance. Fifty-two percent of men and 48 percent of women support limited legalized abortion. Another 11 percent of men and 9 percent of women say abortion should be completely banned.

Nearly one-third thinks less of Christie after address to anti-abortion rally

Given the small number of New Jerseyans who support a ban on abortions, the governor's January pro-life speech resulted in a negative reaction from nearly one-third of respondents (31 percent), though most (54 percent) say his remarks had no effect on their opinion of the governor. Only 14 percent say they feel more positive about Christie after the speech.

Of the 10 percent who oppose all abortions, 49 percent have a better opinion of Christie, while 40 percent say their feelings have not changed, and 11 percent say they feel worse. Those in the middle - the majority who believe abortion should be legal with restrictions - were overwhelmingly unaffected by Christie's speech, with 62 percent reporting that it had no effect on their feeling toward him. Seventeen percent of these voters have a better view of Christie following his speech, while 19 percent have a worse opinion.

Among the 37 percent of voters who support legal abortion in all cases, a majority (54 percent) feels worse about the governor and 45 percent say the speech had no effect. Perhaps more critically, 38 percent of strongly pro-choice voters who initially support Christie say they feel worse about him after his speech.

"Wading into the abortion issue was clearly not about winning additional votes in New Jersey," said Redlawsk. "The governor's expression of solidarity with the pro-life movement hurts him among many of the pro-choice voters who have been Christie supporters. On the other hand, it may be a good way to nail down the base and present conservative credentials nationally. But it comes with some risk here at home."

Predictably, GOP backers are more likely to say the speech improved their opinion of Christie: 29 percent say they feel better after the speech, while 16 percent say the speech made them feel worse. On the other hand, only 4 percent of Democrats say they feel better about the governor, while 39 percent say they feel worse. By about a 2-to-1 margin, independents say they feel worse. But across all parties, 54 percent say the speech had no effect on their feelings about the governor.

Protestants seem least swayed by Christie's speech, with 61 percent reporting it had no effect on their opinion, compared to 55 percent of Catholics and 36 percent of Jewish voters. Among Jewish voters, 58 percent reported feeling worse after the governor's remarks, while 25 percent of Catholics and 21 percent of Protestants say their opinion of the governor worsened. Eighteen percent of Catholics, 15 percent of Protestants, and 6 percent of Jews hold better opinions of the governor in light of his speech.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Is it too early to talk 2011 NJ legislative elections? What about 2012 Presidential?

As we wind down the releases from our most recent poll, we turn today to the future. New Jersey holds elections for the state legislature this year, and the battle is likely to be intense. Between Republicans wanting the ability to move Gov. Chris Christie's proposals through, and Democrats who say a check is needed on the governor, both sides will be fighting hard. Add to this that all 40 Senators and 80 Assembly Members will be dealing with redistricting, the voters continuing unsettled mood, and the fact that many will view this as a referendum on Gov. Christie. Seems to us that it's never too early to talk about the next election in New Jersey!

At the same time, it is impossible to poll individual districts (well, not impossible, just impossibly expensive) and it we did that this early, it would be meaningless anyway. So we have chosen to start by looking at preference for control of the legislature among voters. We also want to get a feeling for how much anti-incumbency is out there - appears to be a lot at the moment.

Still plenty of caveats. Hardly anyone is paying attention to the fact that we will have elections this year. I would guess most voters cannot name their legislators and may not even know what party represents them. And of course, for anti-incumbency to play out, there have to be viable challengers for folks to vote for.

In any case, registered voters right now give the contradictory response that they want to retain Democratic control, but they also want to vote for someone new.

As for 2012, well what the heck, we thought we'd get a baseline. Seems that more NJ voters than not want Obama re-elected, but only by 10 points. And more than 4 out of 10 New Jersey Republicans and independents leaning Republican cannot name any Republican they want to see run against Obama. For those who can, it's essentially a three-way tie between Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, and Sarah Palin.

Text of the release follows. For a PDF of the full release with questions and tables, click here.

IN NEW JERSEY POLITICS, VOTERS PREFER CHECKS AND BALANCES; WANT DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATURE PAIRED WITH GOP GOVERNOR

Favor Obama Re-election in 2012 by nine points

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - With all 120 seats up for grabs in November, a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds that voters prefer to keep Democrats in control of the New Jersey Legislature. A majority (54 percent) want Democrats as a check on Gov. Chris Christie, while 37 percent want Republicans in charge to support their leader's plans for change. However, the poll finds an undercurrent of anti-incumbency: only 30 percent would vote for their "current legislators" while 54 percent would "prefer to vote for someone new."

"Though it's early, voters are quite clear they prefer divided state government," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "They also show a limited understanding of the current environment, since throwing out incumbents would basically mean giving Republicans control in Trenton."

Looking toward the 2012 presidential election, nearly half the state's registered voters (48 percent) say President Barack Obama deserves re-election, while 39 percent disagree. Republicans are split on an opponent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 12 percent, Christie at 11 percent, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin receiving 10 percent support. Forty-two percent did not name a candidate.

The poll of 912 New Jersey adults was conducted among both landline and cell phone households Feb. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. A weighted subsample of 811 registered voters is reported here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

First read on legislative elections

The majority (54 percent) of registered voters prefer a Legislature controlled by Democrats who can act as a check on the governor's plans, while only 37 percent want Republicans to be in control to support Christie, the poll finds. More than 80 percent of partisans want their own party to win in the fall, but independents prefer Democratic control by 48 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent unsure.

Not surprisingly, a dislike of Christie correlates strongly to wanting to check his power: 80 percent of registered voters with an unfavorable impression want Democrat victories. Among those liking Christie, 66 percent want to help him by turning the Legislature over to the GOP.

"While independents generally favor the governor, their good feelings are tempered by a wish that state government remain divided between the two parties," said Redlawsk. "This seems to reflect a desire for bipartisanship and compromise between Republicans and Democrats, rather than strong endorsement of either side."

Respondents' preference for Democratic control may be offset by a persistent, underlying anti-incumbent feeling, Redlawsk said. Asked to choose their "current legislators" or "someone new," 54 percent chose the latter. Only 30 percent say they would vote for their current legislators if the election was today, while 16 percent are unsure.

"Voters often don't know their legislators names or even party affiliation, leading to this apparently contradictory result," said Redlawsk. "They do know they want change of some sort, but they also don't want to give the governor carte blanche." He added that even among voters who want someone new, 52 percent want Democrats to retain control of the Legislature. Only 39 percent of anti-incumbents want to see the GOP in charge. Among supporters of their current lawmakers, 60 percent prefer a Democratic majority compared to 36 percent pro-Republicans.

Obama re-election favored

Nearly half (48 percent) New Jersey's registered voters believe President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, while 39 percent say one term is enough, the poll finds. Thirteen percent are unsure. Today, 81 percent of Democrats support a second term, while only 14 percent of Republicans agree. Among independents, opinion is split: 40 percent say Obama deserves re-election, 42 percent say he does not. Eighteen percent are unsure.

"The president is strongly supported by the state's Democrats and given their edge in voter registration, Obama can be in good shape, even if independents split down the middle," said Redlawsk. "Still, for a 'blue' state, these numbers seem pretty tight."

Women, by 53 percent to 43 percent, are more likely than men to support a second term for Obama. Members of public employee unions also are strongly in favor of re-election, with 57 percent saying Obama deserves a second term.

No clear Republican preference for a 2012 challenger

More than four-in-10 registered Republicans and independents leaning Republican could not name a preferred challenger to Obama. Among those who could, Romney (13 percent) edges Christie (12 percent) and Palin (11 percent), while only 6 percent name former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty all receive minimal support.

Among the 46 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners with a favorable impression of the Tea Party movement, Romney is the preferred candidate, at 17 percent. Christie and Palin follow at 13 percent support each. The 56 percent not favorably disposed toward the Tea Party movement split support among Palin (11 percent), Christie (10 percent) and Romney (9 percent).

GOP men favor Romney (18 percent) and Christie (16 percent). Women choose Palin (13 percent) and Huckabee (10 percent). Only 7 percent of female Republicans name Romney or Christie as their candidate of choice. Among GOP men, Palin receives 9 percent and Huckabee, 3 percent.

Among those with a favorable impression of Christie, New Jersey's governor edges Romney as their preferred candidate by one percentage point, 16 percent to 15 percent. Huckabee gets 8 percent and Palin trails with 7 percent. The former GOP vice presidential nominee gets support from 20 percent of the small number of Republicans who dislike Christie.

"November is far off, but it is clear Christie is not the default choice of New Jersey Republicans," Redlawsk said. "This is probably due mostly to his continuing denial of interest in running. But were he running, I suspect many would line up behind him."

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Christie and Obama Evaluations Update

Here's our latest release from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. We are continuing to analyze our results from our February 24-26 survey of New Jerseyans. This latest is on evaluations of Gov. Chris Christie and President Obama, with a quickie about Senator Robert Menendez thrown in as well.

Click here for a PDF of the release and questions and tables. Following is the text of the release.

CHRISTIE SUPPORT DECLINES SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING BUDGET SPEECH; OBAMA VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - Following his Feb. 22 budget speech, New Jersey's registered voters are nearly evenly split on their feelings about Gov. Chris Christie: 46 percent have a favorable impression, another 44 do not, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today.

Voters were 10 points more positive than negative about Christie in a poll last December. They have also become slightly less positive about the governor's job performance since then.

"While some polls showed Gov. Christie's support increasing before the budget speech, reaction to the budget itself is mixed, which appears to be reflected in a decline in his post-speech favorability and job performance ratings," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University.

At the same time, the poll finds President Barack Obama's favorability rating among voters has remained consistently better than the governor's since December, at 57 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable.

The poll of 912 New Jersey adults was conducted among both landline and cell phone households Feb. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. A weighted subsample of 811 registered voters is reported here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

New Jerseyans remain polarized over Christie

By a slim margin (48 percent to 45 percent), more registered voters say they are displeased than pleased with Christie' proposed budget. One result may be a decline in Christie's overall favorability and job performance ratings to a nearly even split, 46 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable, down significantly from December 2010, Redlawsk said.

Republicans are three time more likely than Democrats to have positive impressions of Christie (76 percent to 24 percent). Independents also feel more favorable than unfavorable, 50 percent to 37 percent.

The trend for Christie's job performance rating is similar. Half the respondents were asked to rate the governor on an "excellent to poor scale"; half graded him from A to F. The margin of error on these subsamples is +/-4.8 percentage points.

Forty-two percent rate the governor at least good, down only two points from December, but far fewer rate his performance excellent now, 14 percent compared to 21 percent. More rate his performance as fair (30 percent now versus 23 percent), while 29 percent say he is doing a poor job, mostly unchanged from December.

Republicans are somewhat less positive about the governor's job performance following his budget speech: Christie's 39 percent excellent rating among GOP voters after last November's election falls to 27 percent. Another 38 percent rate his performance as fair or poor compared to 26 percent in December.

Independents also are less likely to rate Christie excellent: 14 percent now compared to 21 percent in December. At the same time, they also are less likely to rate the governor poor: 19 percent now compared to 23 percent in December. Since the budget address, independents are less polarized about the governor's job performance, and registered Democrats also are somewhat less extreme. More than half of Democratic voters in November rated Christie's performance as poor. Forty-two percent rate him poor now.

Among registered voters asked to grade Christie's job performance with a letter, 14 percent give him an "A" while 24 percent give him a "B," very similar to his "excellent" and "good" ratings. Another 26 percent rate him "C," while 15 percent give a "D" and 19 percent give an "F".

"Looking at job performance with letter grades lets us examine negative feelings more closely," said Redlawsk. "While 59 percent say the governor has done a fair or poor job, the letter grades show that many would probably give a 'C' if they had that option, while only about a third give truly negative ratings. This more nuanced evaluation helps us understand why Christie's overall favorable rating is more positive than negative."

Obama favorable rating higher than Christie's; job performance similar

While New Jerseyans are split on Christie, a strong majority (57 percent) holds a favorable view of President Obama, while only 36 percent view him unfavorably. The president's favorable rating remains largely unchanged from December.

Concurrently and in a trend similar to Christie, registered voters are less happy with the president's job performance than they are with him personally. Only 11 percent say Obama is doing an excellent job as president, while 38 percent think he is doing a good job. Another 30 percent call his performance fair, and 20 percent perceive it as poor.

As with Christie, half of respondents were asked to use letter grades for Obama's job performance. Among these registered voters, 11 percent give him an "A" and another 32 percent, a "B." Both of these reflect the same responses as the excellent and good ratings. In the letter grading, 30 percent assigned a "C," again similar to the 30 percent rating Obama as "fair". Finally, 14 percent give Obama a "D" and 12 percent an "F."

"The president is doing a little better overall than the governor, according to voters," said Redlawsk. "The biggest difference is that more give Christie very negative - D or F - ratings than do for Obama. We also learn that interpreting 'excellent' and 'good' ratings is pretty straightforward, but 'fair' might not be as negative as we usually say it is, since it seems to correspond with a 'C' rating."

Menendez becoming better known; evaluation more positive than negative


U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez is viewed favorably by 34 percent of registered voters, and unfavorably by 28 percent. At the same time, 38 percent have no opinion on Menendez. In a December poll, 29 percent of voters had a favorable view of Menendez, while 27 percent viewed him negatively. Forty-four percent were neutral. In the span two months, Garden Staters have become more aware of Menendez, and are slightly more likely to view him favorably than unfavorably as they learn more about him.

While Democrats were more likely than Republicans to have a favorable view of Menendez (55 percent to 17 percent), even a third of Democrats still have no opinion, while 39 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents offer no impression of the senator.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Tenure and Pay Reform Package Popular

Governor Chris Christie may have hit the sweet spot with his package of tenure and pay reforms for K-12 teachers in New Jersey, according to our latest polling numbers here at Eagleton. While last fall voters told us they did not think teacher pay should be linked solely to student test scores. But Garden Staters are for the most part happy with the idea of tying pay to more holistic evaluations, that include test scores as part of the rubric.

Voters do not like tenure itself, though if it exists they want it tied directly to teacher evaluations.

The full text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release along with questions and tables.

NEW JERSEY VOTERS FAVOR CHRISTIE TEACHER TENURE REFORM PROPOSALS
OK with using test scores as part of teacher evaluation

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - New Jersey voters generally support key planks in Gov. Chris Christie's proposals to reform teacher tenure and pay, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Families with school-age children and those without support reforms that would eliminate lifetime tenure, change how teachers are evaluated and tie pay to performance. While public employee union households want no change, others strongly disagree.

"While some voters, especially those who feel negatively toward the governor are dubious about the proposals, for the most part New Jerseyans seem to embrace his ideas," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University.

The poll of 912 New Jersey adults was conducted among both landline and cell phone households Feb. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. A weighted subsample of 811 registered voters is reported here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Strong opposition to current teacher tenure policies

After being briefed on the current K-12 teacher tenure system, 58 percent of registered voters disapprove of the tenure policies while only 40 percent approve. In a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll last October, just 28 percent approved tenure when told some believe it prevents bad teachers from being removed, rejecting the idea that it is necessary for academic freedom.

"Taken together, these results tell us that New Jerseyans are nuanced in their response to tenure," said Redlawsk. "When tenure is presented as providing due process, it gains more support than when it is described as a choice between academic freedom and protection of bad teachers. But in either case, a majority of voters doesn't like it."

Public employee union households are stronger supporters of tenure: two-thirds approve the status quo. Private union members disagree, however, with only 40 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. Among nonunion households, 34 percent approve and 64 percent disapprove.

There are no differences between households with school-age children and those without, but partisan differences loom large, the poll found. Democrats, by a 2-to-1 margin over Republicans (53 percent to 26 percent), support current tenure policies. Independents are closer to Republicans on tenure, with only 36 percent in favor.

Personal feelings about Christie also strongly predict opposition to tenure: 21 percent of respondents who approve of the governor agree with the current tenure system versus 56 percent of those who disapprove of Christie.

"The governor's tenure reform package is closely connected to him, since he is not only its most visible cheerleader, but has been vocal in attacking the current system," said Redlawsk.

Comprehensive teacher evaluations including test scores welcomed

The administration's proposed changes to tenure include evaluating teachers on such indicators as standardized test scores, classroom observations and schoolwide student performance. Six-in-10 voters call this a fair approach, while 37 percent say it is unfair.

As with tenure itself, party identification helps predict support for the policy. Republicans are 12 points more likely to say the proposal is fair, though even 55 percent of Democrats support the idea. But respondents' impression of Christie is an even stronger predictor once again. Three-quarters of voters who like the governor say these changes in evaluation standards would be fair. But support drops precipitously among those who view Christie negatively. These voters are distinctly opposed to the plan: 44 percent see it as fair while 53 percent say it is unfair. And among public employee union households, only 36 percent see the proposal as fair.


Voters want tenure tied to teacher evaluations

New Jersey voters also support the administration's proposal to make it harder for teachers to gain tenure and easier to lose it. Nearly two-thirds want tenure linked directly to positive or negative teacher evaluations. Again, liking Christie drives support even higher, to 81 percent, while those who dislike the governor are evenly split, 48 percent approving to 50 percent disapproving.

Concurrently, voters recognize that "one size does not fit all" when it comes to evaluations. More than eight-in-10 agree adjustments should be made for teachers who teach where "children struggle and may not perform well" on state tests. Neither partisanship nor personal feelings about Christie change this response.

"New Jerseyans clearly accept Governor Christie's claims that the current system is broken, and thus needs to be reformed," said Redlawsk. "At the same time, they want these reforms to be fairly applied, recognizing that some teachers have a tougher time than others."

Pay should be tied to scores and other indicators

Garden Staters strongly believe teachers' pay should be tied to new standards. The towns in which they teach as well as their subjects or areas of specialization also should be considered. Sixty percent of respondents approve linking pay to evaluations, while 35 percent disapprove. Almost three-quarters of Christie supporters back the measure, while only half of those with an unfavorable impression of the governor agree.

The findings are substantially different from reactions to using only test scores to determine teacher pay. Last October's Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found that only 32 percent of respondents would support a proposal to link teacher pay solely to student test scores.

"Last time, we found little support for basing pay directly on test scores," said Redlawsk. "Now a more holistic approach is clearly supported, allowing tests to play a role, but not be the only basis for rewarding teachers."

Thursday, March 3, 2011

New Jerseyans warming to cuts to services

We have a treasure-trove of data in this latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Today we release our findings on how voters are responding to possible budget cuts in specific areas and how little they want to raise revenue. This release talks a lot about last year - that poll was done a couple weeks after Gov. Chris Christie's first budget speech. The 2010 release can be read here.

In a nutshell what we find is that fewer New Jerseyans oppose cutting across all of the budget areas we mentioned, though they remain most supportive of their schools and services for the poor. And, not surprisingly, they still don't want to raise taxes or tolls, except on the wealthy. (Our initial budget release for this year discusses this as well.)

Full text of the release follows. A PDF of the text and tables for this release can be found here.

NEW JERSEYANS WARMING TO CUTS TO SERVICES, STILL MOST PROTECTIVE OF EDUCATION

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J - Despite divided opinions on Gov. Chris Christie's budget, New Jersey voters are warming to the idea of budget cutting, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Following last week's budget address, Garden Staters are less likely to want to protect a wide range of program areas than they were in March 2010.

Specifically, voters are 8 points less likely to say no cuts should be made to municipal aid, 10 points less likely to want to protect environmental programs and 12 points less likely to oppose cuts to colleges and universities than they were after the governor's first budget address. At the same time, voters continue to oppose increasing revenue through higher taxes and tools.

"Governor Christie talked about the 'new normal' in his budget speech. For voters, the new normal appears to be greater acceptance of budget cuts," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "While Democrats still resist many cuts and are more likely to support revenue increases, independents are looking more like Republicans in their support for budget cutting."

The poll of 912 New Jersey adults was conducted among both landline and cell phone households Feb. 24-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. A weighted subsample of 811 registered voters is reported here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Budget cuts: more protection for schools and programs for the poor

New Jersey voters are split in their reaction to the governor's budget, with 45 percent pleased and 48 percent displeased. But when asked about specific services, support varies significantly.

For the second straight year, New Jersey voters are most supportive of their schools and programs for the poor. Half say there should be no cuts at all to state aid to schools while 13 percent want school aid cut more deeply.

In his budget, Christie's proposed an increase in state aid to local school districts, though aid will remain far below pre-2010 levels. Last year, 57 percent said they wanted no cuts to school aid, while 15 percent wanted deep cuts.

Likewise, there remains significant support for programs to help less well off New Jerseyans, though support has also declined: 42 percent want no cuts in such programs, compared to 51 percent a year ago, while 16 percent want these programs cut more deeply, a 2 percent bump from 2010.

"New Jerseyans have warmed to program cuts - even to the most supported programs - to close the budget deficit," said Redlawsk. "And while most still oppose deep cuts to education and assistance to the poor, more are willing to cut at least something."

Two-thirds of Democrats are much more likely to oppose cuts in aid to school districts compared to 38 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents. More than half are against poverty assistance program cuts, versus about one-third of Republicans and independents. Last year, the latter were much closer to Democrats in their support of these programs.

Retired and unemployed voters see government programs for the poor more as much more important than those who are employed: 50 percent of retirees and 49 percent of unemployed New Jerseyans think that these programs should not be cut at all, compared to 39 percent of those employed full-time, and 34 percent of those employed part-time.

Large majorities OK other cuts

Garden Staters are significantly more willing to see cuts in other areas. Twenty-three percent oppose cuts to municipal aid, 29 percent to cuts in environmental programs, and 34 percent to cuts to public transportation funding. Another 37 percent oppose any cuts to colleges and universities. Voters especially seem more willing to see cuts to higher education than in March 2010, when nearly half said higher education should suffer "no cuts at all." More than a quarter of voters want aid to local government and environmental programs to be cut "more deeply" for budget balancing purposes. Overall, voters are now more likely to support budget cuts in all programs presented in the poll.

GOP voters overwhelmingly favor cuts to environmental programs (80 percent) compared to independents (71 percent) and Democrats (62 percent). They favor "deeper cuts" to environmental programs to balance the state budget by a 42 percent to 13 percent margin over Democrats.

Both Democrats and Republicans agree that state aid to local government should be cut, but Republicans and independents prefer deeper reductions. One-third of each group believes state aid to local government should be cut "more deeply" than other programs, compared to one-fifth of Democrats. Democrats also are more likely to oppose any cuts to funding colleges and universities (50 percent) compared to Republicans (28 percent) and Independents (29 percent).

Retired voters are more likely to oppose cuts to public transportation spending (42 percent), while other voters, even unemployed New Jerseyans, are more likely to support transit budget cuts.

Little support for tax and toll hikes

New Jerseyans overwhelmingly are against raising taxes or tolls to balance the budget, with the exception of a sales tax on "luxury goods," supported by 75 percent of respondents. High earners (more than $150,000 per year) are more likely to support a luxury tax than those making under $50,000 per year by 81 percent to 64 percent.

"With consistent strong support for a tax increase on 'millionaires,' and now this, New Jerseyans seem happy to ask the rich to pay more," said Redlawsk. "It is interesting that high-income voters are even more supportive. Maybe they also recognize the need to share the pain of the state's financial troubles."

In contrast, a majority of those polled oppose raising the gas tax (70 percent), the state income tax (73 percent), adding the sales tax to clothing (61 percent), higher highway tolls (57 percent), and increased business taxes (56 percent).

Looking at specific groups, high-income voters are less likely to support tax increases than those who are retired, unemployed or earning less than $50,000 per year.

"The take-home is a little different from last year," said Redlawsk. "After a year of hearing how bad things are, voters are more willing to accept program cuts to balance the budget. But for the most part they are still completely uninterested in paying more."

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Wordle on Responses to Christie's Budget

Just for fun, we ran the open ended responses to Gov. Christie's budget from the respondents in our latest poll through Wordle, which creates nifty pictures from text data. After asking if they were pleased or displeased with the budget, we then asked people to tell us "in their own words" why. The responses "look" very different between those who like the budget and those who don't.

First, those who are pleased with the budget:


Now those who are displeased:


Those pleased with the budget focus on how Christie is TRYING to deal with BUDGET and SPENDING CUTS. Those who are displeased on the other hand use words like EDUCATION, WORKERS, TEACHERS, while also referring to budget CUTS. Given the emphasis on budget cutting and closing the deficit, not surprising that both sides use those words, but I find it fascinating how many of the "pleased" respondents used the word TRYING, as in "Christie is trying to cut..."

I should also note those pleased with the budget use far fewer different words to describe why, compared to those who are displeased!

Just a little fun; more details on the poll itself are in the full press release.