Is Obama Muslim? Some NJ Voters Continue to Think So

Today we release our polling on attitudes towards President Barack Obama in New Jersey. Recently the Pew polling folks released this poll showing nearly 20% of the country thinks Obama is Muslim. Another 43% said they do not know his religion and only 34 percent properly identified him as Christian.

Lots of coverage of this poll, and lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth. How could the American public be so dumb? How could they NOT know the president is Christian? I wrote a little op-ed on this that appeared in the Bergen Record based on my research on political evaluation. Today though we have some polling results from New Jersey on this topic.

We asked registered voters to tell us Obama (and Gov. Chris Christie's) religion. We did not give a list, just asked people to tell us what they thought it is. In a nutshell, 12 percent say Obama is Muslim, 43 percent correctly identify him as Protestant (more specific than Christian), and 38 percent say they don't know Obama's religion.

So NJ voters are a little smarter than people nationally, right? They are more likely to know Obama's religion and less likely to think he is Muslim. Yet we would expect this simply because of the level of coverage of the issue since the Pew poll. We'd also expect it because more NJ voters are Democrats, and Democrats are much more likely NOT to say Obama is Muslim.

By the way, even more voters get Christie's religion wrong - though no one calls him Muslim. About 56% say they don't know the Governor's religion, and only 14 percent identify specifically him as Catholic.

Anyway, who cares? Why does it matter? Well, it probably does not matter that people don't know Christie's religion. But thinking Obama is Muslim is related very directly to other negative attitudes towards him. For example, 40 percent of those who say he is Muslim also say that Obama's administration is "un-American" and 60% say Obama is a socialist. We also find that this is directly very personally at Obama himself (and his policies). When we ask people if they are angry at "the government in Washington", those who believe Obama is Muslim are no more likely to say they are angry than anyone else. This Obama is Muslim rhetoric is about the president and his policies, not about the general sense of frustration and anger the majority of New Jersey voters feel towards Washington.

The release follows. You can see the full release and all of the questions and tables here.


RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS NEW JERSEYANS STILL QUESTION OBAMA’S RELIGION

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – While New Jersey voters are less likely to say President Barack Obama is Muslim compared to recent national polls, a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today finds 12 percent still call him Muslim. Obama is Protestant, and his religion is correctly identified by 43 percent of respondents; 3 percent think he is Roman Catholic, while 38 percent say they do not know. Nationally, 43 percent do not know Obama’s religion, according to a Pew Center poll released last month.

About three-in-four voters who think Obama is a Muslim claim they learned his religion from the media, 10 percent from presidential behavior or statements and 7 percent from the Internet. The remaining 7 percent are unsure or say his ancestry or name reveals his faith.

Voters in general know little about the religious beliefs Gov. Chris Christie as well: 56 percent say they do not know Christie’s religion. Only14 percent correctly identify him as Catholic, while 25 percent voters believe Christie is Protestant.

“The public’s erroneous perception about Obama’s religion has been well-documented in recent weeks,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science. “Our polling shows that misperception is still widespread in the state. The reason this matters for Obama – while not meaning much for other elected officials – is that those who identify him as Muslim do so in a negative way. Being Muslim is seen as out of the mainstream. Being identified as Protestant when you are Catholic has limited consequences.”

The poll of 912 registered New Jersey voters was conducted Sept. 23 to 26 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Who believes Obama is a Muslim?

Almost half (48 percent) the most religious voters (those who attend services at least weekly) correctly identify Obama’s religion, while only 10 percent say he is Muslim and 33 percent say they don’t know. Less religious voters are more likely to get Obama’s religion wrong. Among those attending services monthly, 16 percent label the president as Muslim, 34 percent correctly say he is Protestant and 41 percent say they don’t know.

Partisanship plays a central role in questions about Obama’s religion. Only 8 percent of Democrats say he is Muslim, one-third the percentage of Republicans. Just 6 percent of independents believe the president is Muslim.

Conversely, 54 percent of Democrats get Obama’s religion right, twice the percentage of Republicans and 12 percent higher than independents. The latter group also is the most likely to say they don’t know Obama’s religion (46 percent). One-quarter of Republicans with a favorable impression of the Tea Party call Obama Muslim, but only 18 percent of Republicans who are unfavorable toward the Tea Party do the same.

Impressions of the President and Job Approval

President Obama has seen a five percentage point gain among registered voters in his New Jersey favorability ratings (now 57 percent) since an August Rutgers-Eagleton Poll; 34 percent hold an unfavorable view, down from 36 percent. More than half (53 percent) rate Obama’s job performance excellent or good and 45 percent judge it fair or poor. Of those with a favorable impression of the president, 83 percent think he is doing an excellent or good job. Of those with an unfavorable impression, only 12 percent call his work excellent or good; 60 percent say he is doing a poor job.

Belief that Obama is Muslim is highly correlated with attitudes toward the president: 8 percent with a favorable view say he is Muslim, 51 percent correctly identify him as Protestant, and 34 percent say they don’t know his religion. Among voters with an unfavorable impression, 18 percent say he is Muslim, 31 percent say he is Protestant, and 43 percent are unsure.

“One thing we know is that belief that Obama is Muslim is part of a package of negative feelings towards him,” said Redlawsk. “While most who disapprove of Obama do not say he is Muslim, a significant number do, while few of those who approve of him say the same.”

Obama’s “Americanism” and ideology questioned by many in New Jersey

As in February, voters were asked to agree or disagree with a series of questions, including several about Obama and his administration. Twenty-five percent of voters now agree that the Obama Administration is “un-American” (up from 18 percent in February), and 39 percent concur that Obama is a socialist (up from 32 percent). More Republicans and Democrats now agree with both statements than in February, but agreement is much stronger among GOP voters.

A perception that the administration is un-American is also related to belief that Obama is Muslim, with 19 percent of this group identifying him as such. Only 9 percent of those who disagree with this statement identify Obama as Muslim. Further, 20 percent of those who call the president a socialist also say he is Muslim, while only 6 percent of other voters think so.

The connection between Obama’s perceived religion and voters’ negative feelings about his administration and ideology is very strong. Fully 40 percent of voters who say Obama is Muslim also think the administration is un-American; 64 percent say Obama is a socialist.

Anger at Washington unrelated to beliefs about Obama’s Religion

Asked if “thinking about the government in Washington makes me angry,” 59 percent agreed and 38 percent disagreed. This anger is unrelated to beliefs about Obama’s religion, Redlawsk said. Among voters who say Washington causes anger, 44 percent know Obama’s religion. Nearly as many (42 percent) who are not angry accurately identify Obama as Protestant. Twelve percent of those who are angry at Washington say Obama is a Muslim, compared to 11 percent who are not angry.

“The ‘Obama is Muslim’ discussion is not about Washington politics as such, but is directed at Obama himself,” said Redlawsk. “For the 12 percent of New Jersey voters who say that Obama is Muslim, the issue is personal. Most think he is a socialist and many consider him un-American, but they are no more likely to be angry at ‘the government in Washington’ than anyone else.”

Governor Christie Travels; Voters Want Him to Stay Home

We are up today with our more recent statewide polling on job performance and ratings of Governor Chris Christie. For fun, we included a question about his travels to support Republican candidates nationwide and another about how proud he makes New Jerseyans feel. For whatever it's worth, NJ Voters want the Governor to stay home and work on state issues. Moreover, only a minority say that Christie's national recognition makes them proud to be from New Jersey.

To me the most fun thing in this is that those who are least supportive of Christie want him to stay home, while those who like him most want him to go away! Well, not really go away, of course. These results are a reflection of course of partisanship among other things. Republicans who do strongly support the governor want to share the love and probably expect that he will help other Republicans around the country. Those who are less supportive - including both Independents and Democrats, want him to stay in stay. But I wonder if for Democrats it's also partly because they worry that he will be an effective campaigner for Republicans!

But in any case, voters who think he's doing a good job say "go ahead, leave" and those who think he's doing a bad job say "stay here and work on issues". But if he's doing such a bad job, shouldn't they want him anywhere but New Jersey? {Humor intended!}

On a more serious note, the governor's favorability ratings have tightened a bit, but his job performance ratings have actually improved by 6 points since our August Poll. This despite the "Race to the Top" controversy, for which he takes the greatest blame from voters (we asked this but don't report it below. I intend to get something up on that here on the blog soon.)

Driving positive views about Christie is the belief that taxes are the most important issue facing the state. Voters who think this (the second largest group) are very supportive of the Governor. But voters who think the economy is most important are more negative than positive, and those who rate education at the top are strongly negative about the Governor.


The release follows. Questions and tables are available here at the end of the PDF version of the release.

NEW JERSEYANS TO GOV. CHRISTIE: STAY HOME, ATTEND TO OUR ISSUES

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – As Gov. Chris Christie continues his national tour for Republican candidates, New Jersey’s registered voters would prefer he stay home and focus on Garden State issues, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Almost two-of-three New Jerseyans (64 percent) want Christie here, while one-in-four (24 percent) support his travels.

For the 22 percent of respondents who rate Christie’s job performance excellent, a majority (55 percent) say he should campaign, while 38 percent prefer he remain in state. Others disagree: of those who think he is doing a good job (23 percent), only 22 percent want him to campaign, while 64 percent say he should stay home. Of the 52 percent who say Christie is doing only a fair or poor job, nearly three-quarters want him to stay put and work on New Jersey issues.

“The paradox is fascinating. Those who view Christie’s performance negatively nonetheless would prefer he stay in New Jersey and work on our issues, rather than campaign in other states,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science. “Those who are most supportive agree with his campaigning out of state. This is probably because his strongest supporters are overwhelmingly Republicans who believe the governor’s star power will help other Republicans. It may be those who oppose Christie’s travels – the largest group of whom are Democrats – also worry about the same thing.”

The poll of 912 registered New Jersey voters was conducted Sept. 23 to 26 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Christie’s national reputation does not make New Jersey proud

About one-third (37 percent) of respondents say Christie’ national recognition makes them proud to be from New Jersey. The large majority (56 percent) say it does not.

Not surprisingly, partisan Republicans have a different view. While 62 percent of Republicans say Christie makes them proud to be from the Garden State, only 38 percent of independents and 20 percent of Democrats feel the same.

Support for Christie’s national campaign tour is apparently related to pride: 61 percent of those favoring his campaigning also say Christie makes them proud to be from New Jersey. Two-thirds (64 percent) of those who want him to stay home say the governor does not make them proud.

“Republicans want Christie to spread the word on behalf of other Republicans nationwide,” said Redlawsk, “but the governor seems to not be making the same impression on independents, who make the difference in his favorability ratings, as they did when he was elected.”

Christie favorability tightens, job performance improves

Voters continue to feel slightly more favorable than unfavorable toward the governor as was true in the August Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, despite the high profile controversy of the Race to the Top competition. However, the number holding an unfavorable impression has increased. Across the state, 46 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Christie, while 42 percent have an unfavorable impression and 12 percent are unsure. In August, Christie’s rating was 46 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable with 15 percent unsure.

At the same time, Christie’s job performance ratings have improved, with 45 percent saying he is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 39 percent in August. Fifty-two percent currently rate his performance fair or poor while 58 percent did so in August.

Issues of importance in the Garden State

When voters were asked the most important problem in New Jersey today, they are most worried about the economy and unemployment (32 percent) and taxes (24 percent). Education (13 percent), state budget/spending (7 percent) and crime/drugs (5 percent) follow. Only 2 percent call health care the most important problem, the same percentage as those who name the governor himself. Only 1 percent cites the environment and the NJEA (teachers union).

When asked to rate the importance of a specific list of issues, New Jerseyans overwhelmingly (91 percent) say the economy matters to them personally, followed by unemployment (81 percent), health care (80 percent), taxes (77 percent), the budget deficit (74 percent), terrorism (67 percent), the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (64 percent), and immigration (49 percent).

Christie finds support from voters concerned with taxes

What voters see as the most important problem facing the state conditions how they view the governor’s job performance, the poll shows.

Those who name taxes as the most important issue are more supportive of the governor, with 53 percent rating his performance excellent or good and only 45 percent fair or poor. Among voters most worried about the economy and their own financial security, a majority is negative, with 44 percent rating Christie excellent or good while 53 percent rate him only fair or poor. Voters most concerned about education are much more negative than other voters, with only 30 percent rating Christie’s performance positively, while 68 percent have a negative view of his job performance.

“Those who view Governor Christie doing a good job are much more likely to be focused on taxes, compared to other New Jersey voters,” said Redlawsk, “and it is clear he has lost voters who think education is the most important. Fortunately for him, that is currently a relatively small group. Yet given the overriding importance of the economy to voters, his negative rating with that group drags the governor down overall.”

Not a lot of Change in the Aggregate NJ Congressional Numbers

We are out today with our latest statewide poll of registered voters in New Jersey. Today's release is about our generic congressional ballot test questions and is a follow up to our early August poll that found incumbents in general in pretty good shape (always excepting CD-3 where John Adler has probably the strongest challenge of any incumbent.

I should make very clear that this poll is STATEWIDE and not focused on any specific Congressional districts. This means that we have about 830 registered voters across all 13 districts. The result is that no district has more than about 65-70 or so respondents in it. Thus we cannot draw conclusions at the district level.

So why do this? Mainly because we think it is useful to judge the overall mood of the state in terms of voting for Democrats versus Republicans and Incumbents versus Challengers.

As we did in August, we randomly split our sample so that half get a traditional generic party ballot test (if the election were today would you vote for a Democrat, and Republican, Third Party, or would you not vote?") and half get an incumbent versus challenger test ("...would you vote for your current congressman or a challenger running against him?").

When asked by party, Democrats maintain the healthy partisan lead they had in August. Not surprising since there are far more Democrats in NJ than Republicans, even these days. Independents have move toward the Democrats, rather than away, and what was an 11 point margin for the Republicans among these registered voters in August is now a 5 point margin. While voters ARE in a grumpy mood overall, Democrats in NJ still support Democrats - we see no evidence of significant partisan defection in the aggregate.

On the other hand, and here is where it gets really interesting. When we ask the question as "incumbent" versus "challenger", incumbents fair pretty badly overall, no matter whether they are democrats or republicans. If voters were to go into the booth simply to vote the bums out, challengers would do very well according to our numbers. But most voters - especially the kind of partisan ones who show up in off-year elections - really don't do that as witness our question on whether the Democrats should be given more time in Washington - 54 percent say yes; only 34 percent say it is time to elect Republicans.

So for the moment I stick by my assessment that even with the unsettled electorate, incumbents of both parties in NJ are probably in pretty good shape, through partisan support and gerrymandered districts that maximize that support. Except for John Adler, in CD 3 of course, where it is a real horse race.

And of course, this is only a snapshot in time, not a prediction. A lot can change in the remaining weeks of this campaign.


The press release follows. The full release with questions and tables can be accessed here.

DEMOCRATS REMAIN STRONG IN NJ CONGRESSIONAL POLL

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – New Jersey voters seem to be moving toward Democrats in a statewide test of generic congressional candidates, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Among registered voters, 45 percent say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress, up from 38 percent in August and 33 percent in February. Republican support has stayed consistent, at 33 percent now, compared to 29 percent in August and 31 percent in February. At the same time, voters have become more certain of their choices, with only 14 percent “don’t know,” down from 25 percent in August.

Applying a “likely voter” screen – defined as those who voted in the last two elections and are generally enthusiastic about voting this time – does not change results very much. Among likely voters, 47 percent say they would vote for a Democrat and 36 percent for a Republican, while 4 percent prefer a third party and 12 percent do not make a choice.

“When we test by party, eight of 10 voters support their own party, and there are simply more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Independents continue to lean Republican as they have all year, but the margin has dropped from 11 points in August to five points. And in any case, independents are much more likely to stay home in an off-year election.”

The poll of 830 registered New Jersey voters was conducted September 23 to 26. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Generic vote questions were asked of random half samples, which have a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Results do not apply to specific districts but give a sense of the overall mood of the state.

Support for incumbents vs. challengers depends on the question

To test attitudes toward incumbent members of Congress, half of those polled were asked if they would vote for a generic Republican versus a Democrat, while the other half were asked if they would vote for their current representative or a challenger.

While supporting their party, voters are more uncertain when it comes to supporting their representative. Registered voters favor their current congressperson by only one percentage point, 32 percent to 31 percent; another 24 percent are undecided and 13 percent say they would not vote. Among “likely voters” only, incumbents are ahead, 35 percent to 33 percent. Results are essentially unchanged from August, when generic incumbents held a 30 percent to 28 percent lead over challengers among registered voters, with 31 percent don’t know.

“We have consistently seen that voters readily support their own party in a generic ballot test,” said Redlawsk. “But they are much less sure if they support their ‘current congressman’ when they are not given a party cue. If voters vote by party, incumbents are generally safe. If they enter the voting booth in a ‘throw the bums out’ mood, some races could be closer than expected.”

Voters in a relatively sour mood, but give Democrats another chance

New Jersey registered voters match the mood of the nation: half think the state is on the wrong track, while only 40 percent think it is going in the right direction. Fifty-eight percent say thinking about the government in Washington makes them angry. New Jerseyans also are less than positive about both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Forty-four percent of registered voters have a favorable view of Democrats in Congress, while only 33 percent feel the same about Republicans. While both parties have gained six points since August, Democrats are in a stronger position, with only 39 percent holding an unfavorable view, versus 50 percent for Republicans.

Reflecting their feelings about the parties and the generic ballot test, 54 percent of Garden Staters think Democrats should be “given more time to solve the country’s problems” while only 34 percent say “it is time to elect Republicans to take charge in Congress.”

In Democratic districts, Democratic margin increases as voters decide

Across current Democratic congressional districts, 47 percent of registered voters would vote for a generic Democrat compared to 31 percent for a Republican, while 15 percent of voters living in Democratic districts are still undecided. This is an increase in support for both parties since August when 41 percent of registered voters living in Democratic districts supported a Democrat and 28 percent supported a Republican.

Support for incumbents in these districts is 15 points lower when the question is asked about supporting “your current congressman” and not including political party. Among registered voters living in a Democratic district, only 32 percent say that they would vote for their current representative, while 31 percent favor a challenger. At the same time, when party is not included, 24 percent of voters are still undecided, and 13 percent say they would not vote. Support for incumbents in Democratic districts is about the same among likely voters who favor their current representative over a challenger by a 36 percent to 32 percent.

Republican Districts remain closer

Across all Republican-held districts, 38 percent of registered voters would vote for a generic Republican, while 42 percent would vote for a generic Democratic candidate; an increase of one point for Democrats since August. Republicans pick up four points among likely voters, with 42 percent siding with the Republican and 44 percent the Democrat. Another 5 percent would vote for a third party candidate and 7 percent are undecided. Likely voters in Republican districts are more certain about their choices than those voters living in Democratic districts (13 percent undecided).

Framing the question as incumbent versus challenger makes some difference across all Republican-held districts. Put this way, 32 percent of registered voters in these districts would vote to re-elect their current congressman, while 32 percent say they would vote for a challenger. As with Democratic districts, many more say they are undecided when party is not included: 21 percent are undecided, and 15 percent say they would not vote.

“While it would appear Republican incumbents face a tougher electorate than Democrats in New Jersey, this is mostly due to the aggregate nature of our statewide polling,” said Redlawsk. “We have fewer respondents in the five Republican districts than the eight Democratic districts, so we must be much more tentative with the numbers here. At this point there is no reason to believe any Republican incumbents in New Jersey are actually in trouble.”

Independents voters favoring Republicans, challengers

Independent registered voters are more supportive of generic Republican congressional candidates than Democrats. When asked if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, 25 percent pick the Republican, 20 percent the Democrat, and 16 percent prefer another candidate. But 35 percent of independent voters are undecided, and 5 percent say that they will not vote. This shows an increase in the number of independents preferring a third party candidate, as well as an increase in support of Democratic candidates from August.

When framed in terms of voting for a current incumbent or a challenger, independents are riding the anti-incumbency wave along with their partisan counterparts: 30 percent say that they would support a challenger in a congressional race, while only 24 percent would favor an incumbent. Another 30 percent have not yet made up their minds, and 16 percent say they would not vote.

Partisans are paying attention

Republican and Democratic likely voters are following election news much more closely than independents. Among likely Republican voters, 46 percent say they are following news “very closely” along with 44 percent of likely Democratic voters. But only 31 percent of independents report that they are following the election news “very closely.”

Minor Correction

Well, it is one of those days. For those of you who read the full release of our CD 3 poll this morning, including tables, we have posted a minor correction here. Despite four sets of eyes looking at the release, we inadvertently switched "Not" and "Very" in the captions for the "Enthusiasm" question on the tables on Page 4. The text of the release is correct, it was only the table that contained the error. This is now fixed. Nothing changes about our interpretation of the race in CD 3.

Adler/Runyan Race Continues Hot, But Adler Maintaining Lead

If it's the end of September it must be time for another poll in NJ's 3rd Congressional District, the only one pundits think is really competitive. And our latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll does indeed suggest the race remains close among likley voters, though incumbent Democrat John Adler holds a strong lead among all registered voters. Adler's potential problem, however, is that his supporters are less likely to be enthusiastic about voting. Thus what is a 9 point lead or so among registered voters (compared to only 6 points in August) is a within-the-margin-of-error two point lead among those we judge to be likely voters.

Still, as the release below shows, Adler is in reasonable position for an incumbent Democrat in a marginal seat given the prevailing winds of 2010. He seems to be so because most likely voters in the district actually say they prefer experience over an outsider and because he is seen somewhat more favorably than is his opponent Republican Jon Runyan. A Christie endorsement of Runyan doesn't change much, nor does an Obama endorsement of Adler. Go figure!

A quick note on "likely voters". In August we did a very simple likely voter screen, essentially asking how likely the respondent was to vote this fall, and eliminating anyone who gave a response of "50/50" or less. We know of course that people tell us they will vote, even when they won't, so this screen is kind of limited.

For this poll and for the next pre-election poll in late October, our screen is a little more detailed.

We start by asking people if they voted for president in 2008 and governor in 2009. Those who did not vote in these higher profile elections are extremely unlikely to vote this fall, so we drop them, - except if they were not old enough to vote in 2008 or 2009. We then ask a vote enthusiasm question, where respondents are asked to say how enthusiastic they are about voting on a 0-10 scale. We drop anyone who scores less than a 5 as being less than 50% likely to vote. Finally, we also give respondents a chance to say they will not vote in our vote choice questions. Those who say "not vote" are also eliminate from the likely voter pool. The result in the 3rd District is that we go from 538 registered voters to 335 likely voters in our sample, about a 63% yield. While Congressional year turnout is virtually always lower than presidential and gubernatorial, the question this year is how much lower? My guess is that 60% of registered voters (NOT of eligible voters) is still high, but probably not too bad a cut for a likely voter screen.

Following is the release.
Full Release with Questions and Tables available HERE.


RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: ADLER MAINTAINS LEAD IN 3RD DISTRICT

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Third Congressional District incumbent Democrat John Adler has increased his lead among registered voters to nine points over Republican challenger Jon Runyan, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. With third party candidate Peter DeStefano included, Adler leads with 40 percent (up from 31 percent in August), followed by 31 percent for Runyan (up from 25 percent) while DeStefano polls at 6 percent (up from 4 percent). Most registered voters now make a choice, with only 12 percent saying “don’t know” and another 12 percent saying they will not vote.

Adler’s lead among registered voters is at risk, however, when voter enthusiasm is considered. Only 42 percent of Democrats rate themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming election, compared to 58 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of independents.

“John Adler appears so far to be bucking the tide of anti-incumbency and anti-Democratic feeling among all registered voters,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “However, there is significant risk for him in the enthusiasm gap evident between Republicans and Democrats. If more Democrats don’t vote, Adler will be in trouble.”

The telephone poll of 538 registered voters and 335 likely voters living in the 3rd District was conducted Sept. 23-26 and has a margin of error 4.2 percentage points for registered voters and 5.4 percentage points for likely voters. The survey included both landline and cell phone respondents.

Statistical tie among likely voters

Likely voters – defined as those who voted in the last two elections and are generally enthusiastic about voting this time – prefer Adler by two points, but this is within the poll’s margin of error. Adler leads Runyan, 41 percent to 39 percent, with DeStefano at 6 percent among likely voters; 14 percent remain undecided.

Independents will hold the key to this election if they vote, Redlawsk said. Among all registered independents, Adler leads Runyan, 32 percent to 26 percent, with DeStefano at 11 percent. But among likely voting independents, Runyan leads, 35 percent to 30 percent, with DeStefano at 9 percent.

“Independent voters’ normally low turnout in an off-year, coupled with the lack of enthusiasm by Democrats, puts Adler in a tougher place than he would be if turnout were higher,” said Redlawsk. “He still appears to have the edge, but it is a very thin edge. Nonetheless, given the uphill battle Democrats face overall, Adler seems in a better position six weeks out than may have been expected.”

Likely voters more favorable towards Adler

Likely voters feel positive about their incumbent congressman, by a 43 percent to 30 percent margin. In comparison, only 29 percent feel favorable towards Runyan, while 30 percent feel unfavorable. Another 28 percent say they have not heard enough to have an opinion on Runyan, compared to only 15 percent for Adler. Meanwhile, 6 percent view DeStefano favorably and 8 percent unfavorably. Among independent likely voters, Adler gets 39 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable, compared to 29 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable for Runyan.

Attitudes toward Democrats in Washington

Forty-six percent of likely 3rd Congressional District voters think Democrats should be given more time in office, 2 points higher than those thinking it is time to elect Republicans. About three-quarters of likely voters willing to give Democrats more time say they will vote for Adler; almost the same percentage who call for a Republican say they will vote for Runyan.

Experience versus the outsider

Registered voters prefer an experienced candidate to an outsider by 51 percent to 32 percent margin. In August’s Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, only 26 percent preferred an outsider, while 48 percent wanted experience. Among likely voters, 47 percent say they favor experience, while 34 percent would prefer an outsider. About six-in-10 likely voters calling for an experienced candidate prefer Adler; the same percentage favoring an outsider makes Runyan their choice.

“Voters’ preference for experience is helping Adler, even in the current anti-Washington environment,” said Redlawsk. “As an incumbent, Adler can obviously trade on his experience, while Runyan is forced to make the outsider claim that voters seem less interested in supporting.”

Endorsement by Obama and Christie

Endorsements by President Barack Obama and Gov. Chris Christie appear to have limited effect on voters who have already chosen their 3rd District candidate: only 37 percent of likely Adler voters said Obama’s endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Adler, while six percent said it would make them less likely. The majority (56 percent) said an endorsement by Obama would not matter. Among Runyan voters, 62 percent said an endorsement of Adler by Obama would make them less likely to vote for Adler; just 6 percent said it made them more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate.

An endorsement by Christie would make 42 percent of Runyan voters more likely to vote for the Republican candidate; 8 percent say it would make them less likely. But most likely Runyan voters (50 percent) say such an endorsement would not matter. For Adler voters, a Christie endorsement of Runyan would make 50 percent less likely to vote for the GOP candidate, while 42 percent say it would make no difference.

Voters are paying more attention

Compared to the August Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, 3rd District voters are paying more attention to the Adler-Runyan race as Election Day nears. In August, 45 percent of registered voters said they were not paying close attention, nine points higher than today. Two-thirds of voters say they are paying at least “somewhat close attention” to political news. “The more voters pay attention, the more likely they are to vote,” said Redlawsk. “Off-year turnout is normally substantially lower than presidential years, but there does seem to be a greater level of interest in this race than in the usual congressional vote.”

Shooting from the Hip doesn't always Pan Out

This past week has seen a new type of story on NJ Governor Chris Christie - one in which failure figures prominently. It goes something like this: First we learn New Jersey came in 11th in the federal Race to the Top competition for school funding. Unfortunately there were only 10 winners. That's bad enough, but then it turns out there was an error in the New Jersey application that cost us 4.2 points. We apparently only needed 3 more to come in 10th and get the $400 million prize.

Governor Christie takes to the podium, three binders in hand, which he says is the thousand page application. He rails on at faceless bureaucrats in Washington, President Obama, and others, saying it's Washington's fault we lost out, that we weren't allowed to correct a minor clerical error made by some mid level staff person. It's vintage Christie, shooting from the hip.

Then we find out that the feds videotaped the presentation, and despite the Governor's claims, NJ WAS given a chance to produce the right numbers. And it's on tape. Suddenly shooting from the hip doesn't look so good. We also find out that the original version of the application that (now former) Education Commissioner Bret Schundler worked out with the NJEA had the right information. But the Governor, in a high profile, shooting from the hip slap down of both the NJEA and Schundler, rejected the compromise and (presumably) his office redid the application and introduced the error.

So in the next shot from the hip Schundler ends up directly in the line of fire and is out as Commissioner. But he insists he did nothing wrong, and in fact told the Governor not to make the claim that the Obama administration didn't let New Jersey correct the numbers.

So here we are. A Governor who has blasted to fame as a straight talking, shoot from the hip, take no prisoners, etc., kind of guy, is caught by his own style.

Is this going to hurt him politically? Will it embolden the Democrats, who seem to cower in Christie's presence? Our recent polling might give some some insight.

In our August 2010 poll we found that Christie was viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 39%. Both numbers are up from last spring, when he was viewed more negatively. But interestingly, his job performance numbers are quite negative, with only 39% rating him excellent or good, and 58% only fair or poor.

So New Jersey voters like Christie overall as a governor, but do not think he's doing that good a job. What kept his favorables positive in the face of the job performance number?

I think it is because New Jerseyans have appreciated Christie's style of leadership, with 70 percent saying the words "Strong Leader" apply either very or somewhat well to him. They also think he's smart with 76 percent saying that word applies. So he's a smart, strong leader, which in times of uncertainty people like very much. Even a majority of Democrats think these words apply to him.

But, 76 percent also say he is stubborn, and 60 percent report that "arrogant" applies to the Governor. And therein lies some risk for him in this dust up.

Will this nearly half-billion dollar screw up hurt the Governor? It is likely to if it impacts beliefs about him being a smart leader, and reinforces his stubbornness and even arrogance in people's minds. But more importantly, it is likely to because Garden Staters LOVE their local schools and their teachers. They may well not love the teacher's union, but that's a lot like hating congress but liking one's own congressman, which time and time again is the case. And here was a chance to get a lot of money for our schools. A chance that was bungled.

In all our polling on the budget, one thing comes out clearly. The cuts to school funding are not popular and many people want the funding restored. In our August poll we asked whether overall budget cuts should be reversed when times get better, or taxes cut. While we haven't published the results, we found that 41 percent want programs restored (while 53 percent want tax cuts). We then asked those who want programs restored, which should be the top priority, and school funding blew every other option away, with 51 percent. Second was restoring programs for the poor at only 16 percent. This tracks with our polling in April where there was strong desire to protect education.

So the numbers tell us that Christie's support from the public is based not so much on job performance, and definitely not on the budget (only 30 percent support the budget in our August poll) but instead on perceptions of Christie the smart strong leader, who comes across as taking on the entrenched interests. And this 400 million dollar misstep may well erode that image the longer it is talked about. If so this could be the beginning of a new perspective on the rookie Governor. Votes may well begin questioning whether it is the leadership or the stubbornness and arrogance that drives what Christie does. As a leader people respect him even if they disagree. But if his leadership results in such high profile failures, they may begin to wonder what else they should question about his approach to running New Jersey.

Governor Christie may continue to shoot from the hip, but he will need to be more careful where he's pointing when he does so.

An Overview of NJ's Congressional Races

Today we follow up on a survey we ran way back in February, trying to get an overall feel for the upcoming Congressional races in New Jersey. There are no statewide races on the ballot this fall, so it is likely to be a low turnout election, if history is any guide. On the other hand, a surprising number of people claim to be paying at least some attention to news about the election, and we all keep reading about how certain groups are energized and others are not. So maybe we'll see more coming to the polls than usual for this off-year election.

In any case, we did a statewide survey where we split the sample into two groups. With one group we asked the standard generic Republican vs. Democrat ballot test for Congress. With the other we asked about voting for "your current congressman" versus a "challenger running against him". (YES, all of NJ's members of Congress are male.)

These aggregate results give us an overall picture, but of course do not tell us about individual districts, since we have only about 55-60 respondents per district. So we aggregate by whether the district is currently held by a Republican or a Democrat to look a little more deeply at the results.

I should note too that these statewide aggregate results do NOT include the 3rd district, where we specifically polled the Adler/Runyan race. The release on that race is available here.

Following is the release. A PDF with the release and questions and tables is available here.


NEW RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL SHOWS DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS SAFE, BUT REPUBLICANS SAFER

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Will New Jersey voters support their incumbent congressional representatives in this fall’s contentious midterm elections?
Their answers depend on how the question is asked.

If the question is framed in terms of incumbency – will you vote for your current congressman? – voters who have made up their minds are split nearly evenly between incumbents and challengers.

But, if the question is framed purely partisan terms – will you vote for a Democrat or a Republican this fall? – voters who have made up their minds are favoring Democrats.

When registered voters statewide are asked about voting for their current member of Congress or for a challenger – without identifying either by party – they give incumbents a 30 percent to 28 percent lead, while 31 percent say they do not know how they would vote and 11 percent say they definitely would not vote. This compares a February, 2010 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, which showed incumbents supported 32 percent to 25 percent, with 27 percent undecided and 17 percent not voting.

“We have seen tightening of the generic incumbent versus challenger results since February,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Among those making a choice, it is now a statistical dead heat statewide, where incumbents had a seven-point margin six months ago. No question that the environment is more risky than usual for incumbents, though it still seems likely that most, if not all, New Jersey incumbents will survive.”

Half those polled were asked about voting for their “current congressman” versus a challenger; half were asked about voting for a generic Republican versus a Democrat. Among these latter voters, 38 percent said they would vote for a Democrat and 29 percent supported a Republican, with 4 percent “other,” 25 percent don’t know and 4 percent saying they will not vote. In February, 33 percent favored Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 7 percent someone else, with 20 percent saying didn’t know and 10 percent not voting.

The poll of 751 registered New Jersey voters was conducted Aug. 5 to Aug. 8. The full sample has a margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Vote questions were asked of random half samples, which have a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points.

Democratic “incumbents” fare badly, but “Democrats” do just fine

Across all districts held by Democrats, voters support a generic Democrat over a Republican 41 percent to 28 percent. But when party is not named, voters in these same districts appear more ready to toss their incumbents, with 29 percent supporting their “current congressman” and 31 percent supporting “a challenger.” The story is the opposite for Republicans. When party is named, voters in GOP-held districts support an unnamed Democrat 34 percent to 31 percent for the Republican, a -3 margin for Republicans. In February a generic Republican led by 15 points in these same districts. But when asked about supporting their “current congressman” over a challenger, voters support the incumbent 33 percent to 23 percent, a 10 point margin, compared to 7 points in February.

Republicans are hurt when their party is named because voters are very unhappy with Republicans in Congress. While only 37 percent of voters feel favorable towards Congressional Democrats, Republicans are liked by even fewer; only 27 percent hold a “favorable” impression.

“Still when we ask voters about supporting their current congressman or voting for a challenger, Democratic districts suffer the most, reflecting that voters are unhappy and know that it is Democrats who are in charge,” said Redlawsk. “Voters in GOP districts overall are more supportive of their ‘current congressman’ than those in Democratic-held districts, when party is not named. Anti-incumbency, such as it is, is more directed at Democrats than Republicans.”

Independents leaning Republican

Independent voters are more supportive of Republicans then Democrats. When asked whether they would vote for an unnamed Democrat or Republican for Congress, independents pick the Republican 25 percent to 14 percent for the Democrat with 8 percent preferring someone else. But 46 percent of independents are undecided, and another 7 percent say they will not vote. This is a slight drop for both parties from the February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll when Republicans led Democrats 30 to 17 percent.

When asked if they would vote for their current congressman or a challenger, independents statewide support a challenger 30 percent to 22 percent, with 34 percent undecided and 15 percent saying they would not vote. Challengers have gained since February when independents were evenly split 28 to 28 percent.

“But, as indicated by the very large undecided and not voting groups, turnout by independents in off-year elections is usually much lower than partisans,” Redlawsk said. “So while Republicans and challengers generally may gain from independent voters, the gain will be limited unless turnout by these voters is much higher than usual.”

There is some evidence independents may turn out in larger than usual numbers. More independents than Democrats say they are following news about the election somewhat or very closely, 63 percent to 52 percent. Republicans are paying even more attention, with 72 percent claiming they are following election news somewhat or very closely.

Obama and Christie have influence

Voters’ opinions about President Obama and Gov. Christie have some bearing on how voters see the congressional races. President Obama is seen favorably by 52 percent of New Jersey votes, and unfavorably by 36 percent, compared to 56 to 31 percent in March. Meanwhile, Gov. Christie is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent, up from April, when his rating was 33 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable.

Support for Obama appears to have a stronger partisan influence on registered voters, than Christie. Statewide, voters who view Obama favorably say they will vote for a Democrat for Congress, 61 percent to 8 percent for a Republican, while those favorable to Christie support a Republican 55 percent to 14 percent.

In districts held by Democrats, Christie support increases the vote for a challenger over the incumbent. Voters favorable towards Christie say they will vote for a challenger, 39 percent to 20 percent, while those unfavorable towards the Governor support the incumbent, 42 percent to 24 percent, a 37 point shift away from the Democratic incumbent based on Christie favorability in Democratic districts. Obama’s influence in Republican districts is not as strong. While support for Obama also leads to support for a challenger, 28 percent to 24 percent, those unfavorable towards Obama support the Republican incumbent, 40 to 19 percent. This is a shift of only 25 points from the incumbent based on favorability towards Obama in GOP districts.

“Voters in Democratic districts are more easily moved by support for Christie than are voters in GOP-held districts by support for Obama; Republicans are just less likely to defect,” said Redlawsk.

Statewide results do not include the 3rd Congressional District, where a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Aug. 10 shows incumbent Democrat John Adler leading Republican Jon Runyan 31 to 25 percent.

Governor Christie continues to Fascinate

There seems little doubt that NJ Governor Chris Christie is different from any governor most New Jerseyans can remember. He is supremely self confident, willing to express what he appears to really believe, and ready to take on whomever appears tob e standing in his way. Like his policies or not, the Governor is something different in recent New Jersey politics.

And Garden State residents are not completely sure what to make of him. As the results we are releasing today (below) show, the Governor's favorability rating is net positive by 7 points, meaning more people are favorable towards him (46% of registered voters) than unfavorable (39%). While we don't publish them in today's release, this compares well to President Obama (+16, 52% to 36%), and is far better than the state legislature (18% - 44%) with a whopping -26.

But at the very same time, Christie's job performance rating in our poll is negative. Only 12% say he is doing an excellent job, and 27% say a good job. But a majority, 58% rate his performance as fair (33%) or poor (25%).

So they seem to like him as a guy, but are not overly happy with the specifics of what he is doing. This is borne out by the negative reaction to the budget, with only 30% supporting it, while 63% think more could have been done to protect programs from cuts.

We wanted to dig more deeply into these attitudes towards the Governor, so we asked how well a series of "trait words" describe Gov. Christie. There were four positive and four negative words, randomly presented. The positives were: smart, independent, strong leader, and reformer, while the negatives were stubborn, uncaring, arrogant, and bully. Some fancy statistical analysis (Factor Analysis) shows that there are two dimensions to these eight words, a positive and a negative one, and each group fits into the factor we expected. So "Stubborn" which might be a positive trait to some people, fits better with the other negative traits statistically.

You can see the release below for the details. Most interesting to me is that Democrats are very mixed - majorities see EVERY word as fitting Christie either very or somewhat well. They see both good and bad in the guy. They are willing to say he is a smart leader, but they also think he is an uncaring bully. Republicans on the other hand, see only the positives, with 85-94% of them saying the positive words describe the Governor very or somewhat well. But most reject the negative words, except for "stubborn", which 69% of Republicans say describes the Governor. Independents are a little more positive and a little less negative than Democrats, but they look more like Democrats than Republicans in their beliefs about these traits.

Overall the order of the traits thought to describe Governor Christie either very or somewhat well is: Smart (76%), Stubborn (76%), Independent (74%), strong leader (70%). Following these are Reformer (66%), Arrogant (60%), Bully (49%) and Uncaring (47%). Note that of the top four words, three are positive (and stubborn may have positive connotations). Of the last four, three are negative. Even with the job performance rating sitting in negative territory, Garden Staters are more positive than negative towards the Governor, at least given this list of descriptors.

Of course, public employee union members are somewhat more negative towards the Governor but they also see his positive traits as well, especially as a strong leader. Given the high profile battles between Governor Christie and public employee unions, especially the New Jersey Teachers’ Association, it is not surprising that members of these unions are more negative. Yet they also perhaps begrudgingly recognize that he is clearly leading and perhaps a smart politician even if he is going where they don’t want to go.

There is also a gender difference in the trait words. This reflects both partisanship, in that women are more likely to be democrats, but also suggests different takes on Christie’s style as governor. Women see him as stubborn and independent first, with many also saying "arrogant" describes him very well, while men characterize him as smart and a strong leader, though also recognize that stubborn can describe the governor as well.

Here's the actual release. Tables and Questions available here.

New Jersey Voters Think Gov. Christie is Stubborn but Independent and Smart

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J –New Jersey’s registered voters think Gov. Chris Christie is “stubborn,” but they also see him as “independent” and “smart,” according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. About 4 in 10 Garden Staters think these words describe Christie “very well,” while fewer than 2 in 10 say they do not describe him at all. Given a set of four positive and four negative character traits, slightly more voters say the positive traits describe Christie very well.

The telephone poll of 751 registered voters statewide was conducted Aug. 5 to 8 and has a margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points.

“New Jerseyans describe the governor as a smart leader, but they are also quite willing to call him stubborn,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science. “Many who say he isn’t doing a good job, describe him in positive terms.”

Positive and negative views of Christie

Asked how strongly they agree with a random list of four positive (smart, independent, strong leader and reformer) and four negative traits (stubborn, uncaring, arrogant and bully) to describe Christie, three-quarters say stubborn “very” (42 percent) or “somewhat” well (34 percent). About the same percentage call him “very” (39 percent) or “somewhat” smart (37 percent). Seventy-four percent agree Christie is at least somewhat independent; 70 percent view him as a strong leader. Sixty-six percent call him a reformer, 60 percent arrogant, 49 percent a bully and 47 percent uncaring.

“That both the positive and negative descriptors fit is striking,” said Redlawsk, “that some of this is driven by partisanship is not. But a majority of Democrats say that all the positive traits are at least somewhat applicable, while a majority of Republicans (69 percent) agree that one negative – stubborn – applies. Republicans are very positive about the governor. Democrats see both positive and negative.”

Independents are mixed; a majority agrees that all the positive traits apply at least somewhat to Christie, as well as two negatives – stubborn (76 percent) and arrogant (59 percent).

“Stubborn can be seen both ways,” said Redlawsk. “The governor does seem to make it a virtue, but its possible coupling with arrogance in independent voters’ minds could suggest there is a thin line between a positive and negative assessment of such a trait.”

Favorability is positive, but job performance negative

According to the poll, Christie’s favorability among registered voters has returned to February’s level (46 percent), but his unfavorable rating during the same stretch has increased 13 points to 39 percent. Only 15 percent of respondents today say they don't have an opinion of Christie, down from 29 percent in February.

At the same time, though almost half the voters say they have a favorable opinion of the governor, a majority think Christie is doing only a fair or poor job. Thirty-nine percent say he is doing a good job, but 33 percent say he is doing a fair job and 25 percent rate him poor. The state budget is the issue that most strongly influences attitudes toward Christie – 63 percent of voters think more could have been done to alleviate program cuts. Only 30 percent say they support the budget as passed.

Public employee union members are more negative

Public employee union members (about 12 percent of respondents) are significantly more likely to say the negative traits describe Christie “very well.” More than half (57 percent) agree he is stubborn, while 49 percent call him arrogant, 41 percent a bully 34 percent uncaring. At the same time they are relatively likely to agree Christie is independent (41 percent) and smart (34 percent). Fewer see him as a reformer or leader (each 26 percent).

Perceptions of Christie as leader vary by employment status

Among unemployed New Jerseyans, only 27 percent call Christie a strong leader, compared to 36 percent of registered voters; 35 percent of the jobless disagree with the description. However, more than half of retired New Jerseyans think Christie a strong leader, while 15 percent disagree. The evaluation of part-time or full-time workers is more mixed: about one third from each employment category think him a strong leader. About one-quarter from each disagree.

A gender gap in perceptions

Men and women hold different perceptions of Christie and his job performance. More men – 51 percent to 42 percent – feel favorable toward Christie and his job performance; 36 percent of men compared to 31 percent of women rate his work performance as fair.

Nearly 80 percent of women agree Christie is stubborn, 75 percent call him independent and 71 percent say he is smart. He is called smart (82 percent), a strong leader (76 percent) and independent (73 percent) by men. Almost half the men, compared to one-third of the women, think the bully label does not apply to Christie. By a 10-point margin, women are more likely to say Christie is not a strong leader.

Hot Race in CD-3. Adler leads among registered voters; Runyan among those paying attention

As promised, we are releasing our first poll of the congressional campaign season, and we are focusing on the 3rd District, and the pitched battle between incumbent John Adler and challenger Jon Runyan. Results are interesting. Among all registered voters, Adler holds a pretty strong lead, and among those who claim they are at least somewhat likely to vote, the lead jumps to 10 points. But, among those who say they are actually paying attention, Runyan is up by 1 point, an 11-point swing.

These numbers actually include an option to "not vote". If the people who choose that option are then dropped from the totals, Adler's overall lead is an additional point higher. We reported the "Not Vote" in the head-to-head because there is an interesting pattern when we include Peter DeStefano, the (maybe) self-identified Tea Party independent who Runyan says is a plant for Adler. What happens is that DeStefano takes more votes from Adler than Runyan [though we're only talking about a handful of actual people], and the number who say they will not vote drops dramatically. But DeStefano doesn't get them, they move to undecided rather than any candidate. In our poll, DeStefano, who we did NOT label as "Tea Party", gets only 4 percent of the vote.

The bottom line seems to be that this race is as competitive in August as people thought it would be. Whether it stays so depends on who is paying attention, the extent to which Runyan can minimize Adler's much larger cash-on-hand advantage, and what the political environment looks like by November 3.

Here's the press release:

ADLER HOLDS LEAD IN NEW JERSEY 3RD DISTRICT CONGRESSIONAL RACE

But Runyan Catches Adler among Voters Paying the most Attention


NOTE: This release with Questions and Tables can be found here.

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – In the already heated battle for Congress in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat John Adler holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Jon Runyan, among all registered voters according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. With third party candidate Peter DeStefano included, Adler leads 31 percent to 25 percent, while DeStefano polls at 4 percent, and 34 percent say “don’t know”. Another 6 percent say they will not vote in the Congressional race. Without DeStefano on the ballot, Adler leads Runyan 35 percent to 28 percent, with 23 percent don’t know and 13 percent not voting.

The telephone poll of 421 registered voters living in the 3rd Congressional District was conducted August 5-8, 2010 and has a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

While Adler leads among all registered voters, Runyan pulls ahead 36 to 35 percent among voters who are paying the most attention to the campaign.

Adler Support Higher among Self-Identified Likely Voters; Small lead with Independents

Among registered voters who say they are “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote in November, Adler’s lead grows to 10 points, 40 percent to 30 percent, with 22 percent don’t know and 8 percent saying they would not vote in this race. The 10 point lead holds when DeStefano is included in the list of candidates.

Among Republican voters, 60 percent say they will vote for Runyan, while 56 percent of Democrats will support Adler. At the same time 19 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of Democrats don’t know whom they support. Among independents, Adler has a small lead, 23 to 19 percent, but 45 percent say they don’t know who they will support.

“It is hard in August to predict who will really vote in November,” said David Redlawsk, Director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and Professor of Political Science. "Thus, while a simple likely voter screen suggests that Adler does better, more people say they will vote than actually turn out.”

Runyan Stronger among those Most Paying Attention

While likely voters give Adler a lead, his advantage disappears among the 54 percent of registered voters who report following the election “very” or “somewhat” closely, Runyan outpolls Adler from this group, 36 percent to 35 percent, while DeStefano receives 4 percent; 24 percent don’t know. About 1 percent say they will not vote in this race. However, Adler has a strong lead among those following the election “Not too closely” or not at all, 24 percent to 11 percent for Runyan, and 3 percent for DeStefano, The majority of these registered voters either answer “don’t know” (49 percent) or that they will not vote (13 percent).

“While likely voters put Adler up strongly, it’s more realistic to analyze those who follow the election news,” Redlawsk said. “In a midterm election, these are the voters most likely to turn out. If that pattern holds, then the race is essentially a dead heat.”

Experience verses the Outsider

By a 22-percentage point margin, registered voters say they prefer an experienced candidate over a political outsider. Among those who favor experience, Adler is preferred to Runyan, 38 percent to 18 percent, with 4 percent choosing DeStefano. Among voters preferring an outsider, DeStefano polls 9 percent, while Runyan gets 36 percent and Adler 14 percent.

The DeStefano Effect

Respondents were given two ballot tests: the first with candidates Adler and Runyan (with “don’t know” and “will not vote” options), and a second test that included DeStefano. Among registered voters, Adler’s support was more adversely affected than Runyon’s by DeStefano, who picked up 6 percent of initial Adler voters, but only 2 percent of Runyan supporters. DeStefano also added 14 percent of those who initially said they would not vote. These effects are relatively small however, given the low level of support for DeStefano overall.

“Despite the debate over the DeStefano candidacy, our polling suggests that he is not currently much of a factor, and if anything, affects Adler slightly more,” said Redlawsk. “Interestingly, when he is included on the ballot test, the number saying they will not vote plummets, and the ‘don’t knows’ grow. This suggests that at least some voters may be open to an alternative to the two major party candidates. Even so, it seems unlikely that DeStefano’s presence on the ballot would greatly affect the dynamics of the race.”

In the Adler internal campaign poll reported in the press, DeStefano was tagged as a “Tea Party” candidate. However, given the controversy and uncertainty over his connection to the Tea Party movement, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll simply labeled him as an “independent candidate.”

“We chose not to label DeStefano as a Tea Party candidate, and this no doubt lowered his support in the poll, compared to the internal Adler campaign poll,” said Redlawsk. “However, given the level of debate over his status, even labeling him as Tea Party would most likely have had a limited effect, especially among those voters most paying attention.”

State of the Race in the 3rd District

“As a well-funded incumbent, John Adler could be expected to start off with an advantage in the election,” said David Redlawsk. “Even so, given the general sense of frustration voters are expressing, Adler’s very close win two years ago, and the competitive nature of the 3rd District, he has a fight on his hands.”

It may be the dog days, but at least one NJ Congressional race is hot!

It has been a while since I have updated this blog, primarily because I have been traveling to research conferences and the like for much of the summer. It's also the case that most people say that political polling in August is not worth the effort.

I would usually agree, but this year it's not only the weather that has heated up. In the midst of this sweltering New Jersey summer, the 3rd Congressional District race has been even hotter. Incumbent freshman Democrat John Adler, who won the traditionally Republican seat two years ago, is fighting to hold onto it in the face of a challenge from former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman John Runyan. Runyan won the Republican primary, and has been racing money at a decent clip. Most observers assume the race will be a close one, given the Republican leanings of the district (Gov. Christie won it handily) and the general negative environment for Democrats.

Adding early excitement was an Adler campaign poll, released (leaked) to the press showing the Congressman up 17 points over Runyan. What made this interesting was not the margin, but the addition of a third candidate who was not on anyone's radar. Peter DeStefano was included as a "Tea Party Independent" in the poll and according to Adler's pollster, got 12 percent when no one seemed to even know he was running. No doubt the "Tea Party" label made the difference.

The question is what is the real state of the race in these early days of August? It is a truism that November is still a long way off, but it seems worth getting a baseline to work from.

So we are doing that. Tomorrow (Tuesday) we will release a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of the 3rd district, gauging the race as it stands right now. It is a simple poll - a head-to-head and a few other questions. What makes it potentially interesting is that we initially do not include DeStefano in the mix, and then follow up with a second ballot test including him.

We also ask if people are paying much attention - and 54% say they are paying a lot or at least some attention to news about the campaign. That seems pretty high for August, but suggests that this really will be the race to watch in New Jersey. Not to give too much away before we do the actual release, but the results among those paying attention are quite different than among the rest of the CD-3 registered voters we surveyed.

Also, we simultaneously did a statewide survey of registered voters focusing on questions about Gov. Christie, the state budget, and generic Congressional ballot tests. We will be releasing those data over the next week.

Finally, we made a very small foray into calling cell phones on the statewide survey, with about 10% of our completes coming from cell phone only households and the remaining 90% from a traditional landline RDD sample.

Stay tuned for more soon.